LA Times Poll -- Tie!

[kennetha]

http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/2004/la-na-poll26oct26,1,4121923.story?coll=la-home-headlines

On the assumption that tie goes to the challenger on election day, this is a great poll, since Bush is below 50%. Undecideds break for the challenger.

[lancdem]

1. I'm not registered with the L.A. Times

Could you give some specifics?

[0007]

5. Add th 7.5% fudge factor - go figure

Among likely voters, Bush and Kerry each draws 48%, with Nader attracting 1%, and 3% undecided. Without Nader, Bush leads Kerry 49% to 48% among likely voters, with 3% undecided.

The survey also finds voters split exactly in half on Bush's performance as president - and almost exactly in half on his decision to invade Iraq.

[flpoljunkie]

11. That would be 49% approve, 49% disapprove--under 50% approval!

[951]

2. OMG! I think I'm going to puke!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Kerry in 04]

14. OMG I love your picture in your sig.

:wow:

[sonicx]

3. numbers please

[Thrill]

4. This is weird

Whites earning $40,000 a year or less split closely between Kerry (46%) and Bush (50%). Among white voters, Kerry leads only among those earning at least $100,000 a year - who prefer him over Bush by 52% to 45%.

[sonicx]

8. that's very odd.

what are some other numbers? (18-29, blacks, etc)

[johnnyrocket]

9. That RIGHT! The 'poor' folks earning 40k or less

include ( operative word: INCLUDE ) ignorant souls that BushCo exploits with his fundie crap, and 'big govment out to get you' BS. Damn shame, the idiots supporting Bush are the same idiots being ruined by his policies.

[Awsi Dooger]

12. The first part is really not that strange

I've seen several studies that working class white males without a college degree who earn $20,000-50,000 per year are much less GOP automatic than other white males. They have not been helped by the tax cuts, and are the second most likely group to alter political direction midstream during a campaign, only to married women.

Your second sentence makes zero sense, like those Newsweek internals last week with males for Kerry and women for Bush.

[DaveinMD]

13. when my wife left her job

her Republican co-worker said to her, may you be rich enough to become a Republican, but not so rich you become a Democrat again.

[Doosh]

6. LA Times had been trending Bush recently, now it's picked up...

...on the Wapo and Rasmussen trend.

[jefferson_dem]

7. Some details -

WASHINGTON - President Bush and Sen. John F. Kerry, in a race dividing Americans far more along lines of cultural values than economic interests, remain locked in a dead heat one week before election day, a Times Poll has found.

Whether measured among all registered voters or only those viewed as most likely to vote - and with or without independent Ralph Nader in the mix - the poll finds Kerry and Bush in a statistical tie.

Among likely voters, Bush and Kerry each draws 48%, with Nader attracting 1%, and 3% undecided. Without Nader, Bush leads Kerry 49% to 48% among likely voters, with 3% undecided.

The survey also finds voters split exactly in half on Bush's performance as president - and almost exactly in half on his decision to invade Iraq.

These results underscore the enormous pressure on both candidates in the final days of a campaign that now appears as if it could be tipped by almost anything - a misstatement on the campaign trail, favorable or unfavorable news for either side, or the two parties' competing efforts to turn out the vote.

The results also are in line with most other national polls, which generally show Bush tied or narrowly leading Kerry, but usually just below the 50% level of support considered a critical measure of an incumbent's reelection prospects.

The Times Poll, supervised by director Susan Pinkus, surveyed 1,698 registered voters, of which 881 were deemed likely to vote, from last Thursday through Saturday. It has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus three percentage points for both groups.

<SNIP>

http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/2004/la-na-poll26oct26,1,4121923.story?coll=la-home-headlines

[eaprez]

10. is that a nationwide poll?

undecideds historically DO break for the challenger - but this isn't a typical election so I wouldn't bank on it. Kerry has to close the deal.