PlanetBev
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Tue Oct-26-04 12:57 AM
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Who else thinks that the Eletoral Vote Predictor website is hooey? |
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It has always seemed to me to be no better than consulting Ms. Cleo.
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freetobegay
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Tue Oct-26-04 01:00 AM
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1. I have never thought it to be reliable |
wtmusic
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Tue Oct-26-04 01:02 AM
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2. It's no more accurate than polls |
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but polls are worth looking at, sometimes
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Hog lover
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Tue Oct-26-04 01:02 AM
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grytpype
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Tue Oct-26-04 01:02 AM
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Taking the most recent poll in each state is a pretty poor methodology. You're mixing a bunch of different polls with different polling methodologies on the same map.
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Firespirit
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Tue Oct-26-04 01:11 AM
Response to Original message |
5. If you mean electoral-vote.com |
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then YES.
I much prefer race2004.net and Chris Bowers at MyDD.
E-V.com is statistically weak. Although I'm no statistician, I have taken stat classes and have some knowledge of what is sound and what isn't, and what this site does is not statistically valid.
The guy who runs it is a Dem, but he seems to be bending over backwards to avoid appearing "biased".... to the point of including Strategic Vision polls. I question ANY poll explicitly marked as R or D. The fact is, all polls are NOT created equal, but this guy treats them as though they were. So... if SV does a sweep of battleground state polls, and most of them (as is likely) show * ahead, E-V includes them anyway and his map shows a very misleading result.
Also, he throws out older polls if there is overlap. Again, this could result in a S-V or Gallup red sweep, and has, which is misleading. There's averaging only if there's a tie for the dates of the polls.
There's no re-weighting for wacky internals such as party ID and no means of dealing with outliers. IMO a good polling site should disregard outliers in its projected/tracking maps, but keep them in the data set in case they turn out not to be outliers in the future; i.e., if later data backs up the seemingly weird result. No attempt is made to do this.
All that said, I don't have a problem with his final prediction map. But his daily maps are not sound.
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PlanetBev
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Tue Oct-26-04 01:19 AM
Response to Reply #5 |
7. Yes, firespirit, it's electoral-vote.com |
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Edited on Tue Oct-26-04 01:19 AM by Miss_Bevey
If not Miss Cleo, then my old Ouija Board that I used as a kid might be just as useful.
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Firespirit
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Tue Oct-26-04 01:26 AM
Response to Reply #7 |
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How about a Wheel of Fortune... with vote totals from 0 to 538 randomly placed around the circle.
More succinctly than the above jargon: I don't have much use for that site's daily maps... in terms of accuracy, about the equivalent of cherry-picking one's polls... in terms of stability, about the equivalent of * in a random sample of three faceoffs with future President Kerry.
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Starlight
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Tue Oct-26-04 01:13 AM
Response to Original message |
6. Ms. Cleo would be much more accurate IMO n/t |
PlanetBev
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Tue Oct-26-04 01:22 AM
Response to Reply #6 |
8. After this election, my hope is that all polls are proven dead wrong |
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Maybe four years from now we won't be on the roller coaster we've been put on this year by these stupid polls.
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elperromagico
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Tue Oct-26-04 01:26 AM
Response to Reply #8 |
9. If Kerry wins and does a good job, we may not be. |
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He may coast to reelection. We can only hope; I can't take this every four years...
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high density
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Tue Oct-26-04 01:28 AM
Response to Original message |
11. It's, well, interesting |
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Edited on Tue Oct-26-04 01:29 AM by high density
I like the idea but with so many wacko polls it seems a bit impossible to get a true feel for the election from that site. Too often it's crammed with GOP-slanted polls that give EVs to Bush with leads in the margin of error.
These polls are so fluid that I wonder what sort of idiots are out there are sitting around at home waiting to answer these polls. I wonder what effect caller ID has on these polls.
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HelpIsOnTheWayDamnit
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Tue Oct-26-04 01:51 AM
Response to Reply #11 |
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It's jumps back and forth so much and the polls are heavily weighted to one side or the other.
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Fri May 10th 2024, 11:39 AM
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