Rarity: Presidential Campaign Send Ads To Hawaii

[tritsofme]

http://www.thehawaiichannel.com/politics/3850224/detail.html

HONOLULU -- With the presidential campaign virtually tied in Hawaii, Democrats and Republicans have started to buy television-advertising time in the islands. It's a significant move, since presidential campaigns usually do not normally spend advertising money in Hawaii.

Viewers should start seeing presidential campaign spots on TV as soon as Tuesday night in Hawaii.

The move comes just two days after two polls came out showing the presidential race neck and neck in the islands. The Democratic National Committee and the Bush campaign called television sales departments and the Democrats began buying ad time.

<SNIP>
What the hell is going on in Hawaii?

In its entire statehood it has only gone to the GOP in Nixon's reelect and Reagan's reelect, I can't believe that a state bush only got 37% of the vote for in 2000 is actually up for grabs today.

[aquart]

1. Someone explained it last night.

No Child Left Behind is popular in Hawaii.

[tritsofme]

2. How can that ridiculous bill

be popular anywhere?

Ahhh, people are just frustrating...

I can't wait for this election to be over.

[69KV]

3. Two recent polls only

...one has the race tied, the other has the Shrub ahead by one point.

I have no idea what is going on either. Every other poll there had Kerry ahead by around 10 points.

[tritsofme]

4. If both camps are buying ad time in that market this late

in the game it means that Kerry hasn't sealed the deal.

They don't look at polls conducted by the local TV station when they make ad buys, their own internals are setting off red flags.

This just makes very little sense to me.

[DCCyclone]

9. tritsofme, not necessarily true re internals!......

The campaigns are not necessarily running internal polls in every state. I know Dubya was running polls ONLY in battleground states, per Karl Rove's own comments a couple months back. I don't know for sure re Kerry's campaign, but I'd be surprised if they're polling in states that conventional wisdom thought not to be competitive. Polling is quite expensive, and the campaigns are not going to run polls everywhere, all the time. So it's possible the campaigns are, indeed, reacting to the two recent public polls, rather than internal polls, in making these new ad buys.

[tritsofme]

10. I think they would have to be pretty

sure something was going on before both of them spent money that could be going to OH FL or PA on a state that bush got only 37% of the vote in 2000.

[Quetzal]

5. Argghhh

And I thought that $h!t would never want to cross the Pacific!!!

Is NCLB popular in Hawaii? I doubt it - Education REFORM is popular here. Our public schools are on the course to failing. Someone had to take action and the National Republicans were the only ones that were doing something.

However, there is one mistake for which Kerry should be rightfully criticized - his lack of rhetoric on the environment. Environmental issues are very important here in Hawaii. If the DNC put out some ads on the Environment, he will increase his favorable rating here.

Although Ralph Nader received a small portion of the votes here in 2000, he is not on the ballot this time.

There are more Democrats than Republicans in Hawaii. There is also a sizable amount of labor union workers that are conservative.

In 2000, Hawaii had the lowest voter turnout in the nation mainly because everyone thought Gore was going to win the state. Democrats usually win by close margins when no one shows up to vote (exception is 2002 Governor election). If Kerry wants to BLOW SHRUB TO THE GROUND and win by 20 percent, all the Democrats must show up and vote.

[tritsofme]

6. a wtf kick

[novadem]

7. We've been focusing so much on PA, OH and FL

I hope we don't let blue states like HI, IA, WI and MN slip away on 2 Nov

[mooky]

8. I don't think that's going to happen

Lots of stuff can change in a few days, especially in HI. * never had a chance there, it's just a polling error.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

11. For What It's Worth

One poll had 41% Reps and 31% Dems...


According to exit polls in 2000 the Hawaii electorate was 51% Democratic and 19% Republican....


The second poll consisted only of two of the three islands and included the most Republican leaning island and excluded the most Democratic leaning island...