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about a Kerry victory.
All the polls, even the bad ones, are good. I always look at the trend, and the trend is all Kerry. Let's take the two bad ones. Zogby has a huge Bush Sunday in his 3 day tracking poll, no one else does. This can happen. It will fall off tomorrow, and I believe we'll be even, or a point either way. The Kerry trend is authentic, and Zogby is honest, so he'll catch it.
Gallup is in business to re-select Bush. Four years ago at this time he had Bush 13 points ahead of Gore. They have no credibility left. This time an 8 point Bush lead with over sampled Republicans has shrunk to 5 points with more Republicans in his sample. His numbers might be skewed, but the trend is not.
Rasmussen, the Republican has Kerry in the lead by 2 points for the first time in over two months in his tracking. This is a 5 point Kerry gain in three days, which is unheard of in his poll that usually moves like a turtle.
The ABC, Washington Post has Kerry by one, wiping out a 6 point Bush lead 5 days ago.
125 major newspapers have endorsed Kerry. This includes 35 that endorsed Bush four years ago, including Conservative papers in Tampa and Orlando. As well as the American Conservative Magazine run by Pat Buchanan and the New Yorker Magazine.
All the news is hurting Bush. Bad news in the economy. Higher oil prices as Americans start to fill their tanks for the winter. Higher gas prices at the pump. Long lines and high anxiety for flu shots. More lay-offs and bankruptcies. A falling stock market. Missing stock piles of weapons in Iraq. Ambushes and car bombs in a chaotic Iraq.
In the mean time, this early voting has been a God-send to the Democrats, giving us weeks to get out the vote of Seniors, working folks and students. The higher the turnout, the better for us.
So, I fell Great. We have the momentum, the better candidate, the more efficient political machine, and all the issues.
November 2, I can't wait. Bring It On.
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