Donkey Rising: New Gallup Poll Shows Movement Toward Kerry

[flpoljunkie]

http://www.emergingdemocraticmajorityweblog.com/donkeyrising/

New Gallup Poll Shows Movement Toward Kerry

The new Gallup poll shows the race moving in Kerry's direction. In their last poll, October 14-16, they showed Bush with a 4 point lead, 50-46 in their 2-way RV matchup. This poll, conducted October 22-24, has Bush's lead shrinking to a single point (49-48).

Even Gallup's bogus LV sample has Bush's lead shrinking from its outlandish 8 points in the previous poll to a merely unbelievable 5 points in the current poll. (Of course, USA Today--shame on them!--leads with and heavily emphasizes the LV results in their story on the new poll.)

Subgroup analysis of the Gallup RV data shows several patterns very favorable to the Kerry campaign:

1. Kerry leads among independents by 5, 49-44.

2. Kerry leads among moderates by 18, 57-35.

3. Kerry leads in the battleground states by 2, 49-47, and Bush's approval rating in these same states has sunk to 46 percent.

On to November 2.

Posted by Ruy Teixeira at 04:54 PM

[liberalmuse]

1. You think???

And they're just now coming out with this? I guess Gallup has their credibility to think about, because just about every poll has been showing a trend towards Kerry in the past few weeks.

[Dogmudgeon]

2. Oh, it's worse than that

Gallup is baised toward Evangelical and Fundamentalist Christians. Which means that if Gallup shows movement toward Kerry, it means that Fundies are defecting.

And who could blame them?

--bkl

[MarianJack]

3. Pat Robertson...

...is scary & evil, but not a dummy. He knows that his interview HAD to do damage to the moron. In a race this close, any movement is significant!

[jhain]

6. also on there

http://www.tnr.com/doc.mhtml?pt=2ETTULsJ%2Bdbr0SDorpNywh%3D%3D

that one will lossen up your shoulders a little bit.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

4. If Kerry pulls away in Ohio and Wisconsin

it's over.

[Arkana]

5. I think Kerry will get a bigger portion of the fence-sitters

than everyone says.