Mark Moulitsas (Guardian Utd): Polling truth (Bush is in trouble)

[Jack Rabbit]

EDITED to fix tags

From the Guardian Unlimited (UK)
Dated Tuesday October 26

Polling truth
Don't be confused by the tide of contradictory voter surveys. Bush is in trouble, writes US blogger Markos Moulitsas
By Mark Moulitsas

At least 112 have been published for the presidential contest in the last week alone.
While it's tempting to look at the jumble of results and declare polling hopelessly useless, fact is, polls have a great deal to tell us about the state of the race. And not in the way people generally assume:

• It's not the head to head
• There is no national election
• Different pollsters use different methodologies
• The state of the race

With that brief polling primer, anyone can take a look at the numbers and get a sense for the state of the race. And a strict by-the-numbers calculation shows that Bush is in serious trouble . . . .

Much can happen in one week, and Republicans are doing their part to prevent a fair election. Perhaps the Bush campaign is right and the 50% rule won't apply to them this year. But the Bushies haven't been right about much of anything the past four years, while Democrats are vigorously challenging voter suppression efforts around the country. As of this writing, this is Kerry's election to lose.

Read more.

[kaitykaity]

1. "Kerry's to lose."

I hope he's right. Gawd, I hope he's right.

[MADem]

2. Jeez, I did not know Kos wrote for the big G...n/t

[DrBB]

7. Yup, for a month or two. He even takes suggestions

...for topics on DailyKos. Guy's like, a prefeshnal pundit now or somthin.

[Eurobabe]

3. some of us have never waivered from saying * was in trouble

when you add it all up, it was never square, what with new registrations, cell-phone user left out of polls, etc.

It's all been a gigantic media song and dance to make it seem interesting. * is toasted.

[Renew Deal]

4. Moulitsas is the Daily Kos founder.

Markos Moulitsas

[WoodrowFan]

5. please please please please

please please please please please please please pleaseplease please please please please please please please please please please pleaseplease please please please
LET IT BE SO!

[Jeff in Cincinnati]

6. Using the 86% formula...

...and the LA Times interactive website (and their latest polling numbers), I have Kerry winning 355-183

If you give Kerry a 1% "hidden vote" from thousands who are registered but not considered "Likely Voters," the numbers turn to 385-153. West Virgnia, Virgina, North Carolina, Nevada and Colorado all turn Blue.

Before anybody starts doing a Happy Dance, however, let me remind you that it all depends on our working like hell to get out the vote.

[Patty Diana]

8. The only way Bush can steal this election is by keeping the polls close

So the GOP owned, runned & operated polls are all doing their bit to subvert democracy. Think about it, if Kerry were leading by say 20 points (which I believe is closer to the truth) Bush would have to cancel the election. That measure's already been brought up in the house.