zoidberg
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Tue Oct-26-04 09:55 AM
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National Review's Poll Watching Tips (actually a good read) |
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It almost sounds as if they are preparing their readers for a loss. 5 Rules: 1) National polling is generally irrelevant in close presidential races2) Incumbents don't win the late undecideds3) Likely voter models are notoriously tricky4) The political scientists and their bizarre models are almost always wrong5) If a poll is too good to be true, it is too good to be true.http://www.nationalreview.com/comment/moran200410260853.asp
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TexasSissy
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Tue Oct-26-04 10:09 AM
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1. After following the polls closely all year, I would agree with these |
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5 truisms. Repub or Democrat, these are 5 truisms worth remembering.
For instance, when most of the polls have * leading, and one poll comes out with Kerry leading 5 nationally (or vice versa), our common sense tells us there's something wrong with that out of sync poll. Besides, national polls this late in the game in a Prez race are meaningless. Kerry's numbers could go up a percentage point because of way more Californians voting for him, but that wouldn't help him win.
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Wed Apr 24th 2024, 02:20 AM
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