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National Review's Poll Watching Tips (actually a good read)

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zoidberg Donating Member (508 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-26-04 09:55 AM
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National Review's Poll Watching Tips (actually a good read)
It almost sounds as if they are preparing their readers for a loss.

5 Rules:
1) National polling is generally irrelevant in close presidential races

2) Incumbents don't win the late undecideds

3) Likely voter models are notoriously tricky

4) The political scientists and their bizarre models are almost always wrong

5) If a poll is too good to be true, it is too good to be true.

http://www.nationalreview.com/comment/moran200410260853.asp
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TexasSissy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-26-04 10:09 AM
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1. After following the polls closely all year, I would agree with these
5 truisms. Repub or Democrat, these are 5 truisms worth remembering.

For instance, when most of the polls have * leading, and one poll comes out with Kerry leading 5 nationally (or vice versa), our common sense tells us there's something wrong with that out of sync poll. Besides, national polls this late in the game in a Prez race are meaningless. Kerry's numbers could go up a percentage point because of way more Californians voting for him, but that wouldn't help him win.
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