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Are polls that have been shown to poll more republicans in general, Kerry probably lead in Wisconsin
If you look at thebulk of the polls that showed Bush leading in Wisconsin, the most recent, Zogby,showed Bush with a 2 percent lead( but remember Zogby's polls during the pre-nomination season, Zogby was completly wrong with his numbers about Kerry and Dean with his polls showing Dean and Kerry far closer than the actual voting reflected. While others had Kerry with double digit leads over Dean in the 11 days before Iowa, Zogby had Kerry and Dean only one or two points apart, and even his New Hampshire numbers showed the two democrats nly a few points apart when the actual results were again, far wider. Zogby's polls did not start coming in line with the other polls until after New Hampshire. While I like Zogby's analysis, his numbers frequently have been off this year, and his polls generally start following others when the trends in the others become obvious)
But the two polls before Zogby showing Bush witha 5 point lead in Wisconsin...Strategic Visions, that Faux subsidiary.
The one before that...CNN/Gallop giving Bush a 6 point lead.
Aside from Zogby, the most recent poll (from last week) showed Kerry and Bush tied in Wisconsin. That was of course, the only poll I am starting to trust. That is ARG. They are one of the few pollsters who are using actual figures based on the averages of DemocraticVoters and Republican votes in the last three presidential elections.
The problems I am having with Zogby is that Zogby does not seem to be cold calling voters, but actually gets the people he polls by having people sign up on his web site, and then contacts them. There would be little to prevent large numbers of Republicans from signing up for Zogby's polls and this could effect his polls as well. ARG just calls people from various lists (old voters registrations lists, or just plain phone lists).In fct, If you go back one week to the 18th, you have two Strategic Visions polls, One CNN Poll, One ARG poll and One Mason Dixon poll and one Zogby poll. Somore than half of the polls which indicate that Bush is leading in Wisconsin are polls done by Republican leaning pollster. Gallop so discredited that dozens of articles have been written criticising the methodology. Strategic Visions...openly Republican.Mason Dixon, another pollster who oversamples REpublicans and extremely undersamples minority and younger voters. So we Have Zogby,ARG, and the whatever poll you are referring to.
The two pollsters I trist the most are ARG and Ipsos Cook. Then to some degree Zogby, who regardless of his polls, has stated that he beleives that Kerry will win the election in the last two weeks.
Anyway, ARG is at least the pollster who uses the most balanced methods, at least using some sort of percentages of Democrats and Republicans that resembles the voting patters of the last twenty years.
They were closest in reflecing the results of the democratic nominations during the primaries. Lets hope they are closed to the figures for the election
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