More bias in Gallup's Florida numbers

[annerevere]

Steve Soto logs another analysis of Gallup at http://www.theleftcoaster.com.

Here's the party ID numbers in Gallup's latest Florida poll:

Likely Voter Sample
TOTAL: 768

Rep: 341 (44%)
Dem: 273 (36%)
Ind: 146 (19%)

Registered Voter Sample
TOTAL: 909

Rep: 387 (43%)
Dem: 321 (35%)
Ind: 187 (21%)

So it looks like Bush's big 8 pt lead (LV) and 9 pt lead (RV) as reported by Gallup is bogus.

[lancdem]

1. Yep

They're state polls have the same problem their national ones do.

[WI_DEM]

2. by contrast, ARG which gives Kerry a 3-pt lead

interviewed 42% Dem, 38% Rep and 20% not affiliated.

[Anaxamander]

3. Pretty easy to manufacture a lead when you sample more goddamn republicans

than Democrats. Does anyone have a reasonable explanation why they would do this?

[AIJ Alom]

4. his 8% lead is explained by his 8% advantage in Republicans.

[David__77]

5. So what's the actual turnout figure like in that state?

I know what it is nationally, but what do exit polls say in Florida?

[DemFromMem]

9. Here is how it went in 2000

No matter how you voted today, do you usually think of yourself as a:
% of total category % of category

40 Democrat 86 13 0 1
38 Republican 8 91 0 1
22 Independent 47 46 1 4


Gallup should put up or shut up and explain how it is justifying a massive shift in voter allegiances from the last two elections (especially given plenty of new evidence showing Democrats outnumber Republicans in registered voters in Florida and that number has only increased since 2000).

[DuaneBidoux]

6. I'm totally baffled by this. Do they NOT want to be taken seriously?

Are they in fact a Republican polling company being paid off under the table (or over for that matter)? It makes no sense for a company to self destruct like this. And if it turns out they go into Tuesday with those numbers and Florida goes Kerry they have no credibility, never again. I'm just baffled by these guys.

[SW FL Dem]

7. But the latest FL registration numbers give

Dems the edge over Reps in FL. There are 1.5 million new voters since 2000 (over 10%) of the total. How the hell does Gallup know who is likely to vote? Are they calling any of the newly registered voters?

[wingover]

8. Manipulate The People With Polls

Mainstream media interviews 976 people out of a nation of more than 250,000,000 to get their poll results.

Video:
http://www.freepressinternational.com/poll.html