Stock Market Indicator Update: How do you spell "toast" with one letter? W

[swag]

Bush's convergence with the losers' line is nearly total. Four trading days will certainly not have him emerging from the serious loss zones in any of the stock market (Dow OR S&P) indicators.

The U.S. stock market is predicting a bad Bush loss.

[AIJ Alom]

1. ah...the ecomonic indicators speak the truth. A Bush defeat !

[politicaholic]

2. Where did you get this chart?

[swag]

5. I run the chart myself

Blue line represents average S&P 500 returns since 1900 wherein the incumbent party retained the presidency.

Red line represents average S&P 500 returns since 1900 when the challenging party took the White House.

Green line represents 2004 year-to-date returns.

[FightingIrish]

3. Only two presidents since Hoover

have had a net decline in the stock market during their term. Nixon was one and * is on track to stay in that elite group.

http://jec.senate.gov/democrats/ber.htm

[eataTREE]

4. Markets closed up today.

DJIA up 138.49 (+1.4%)
S&P 500 up 16.3 (+1.5%)
NASDAQ up 14.75 (+0.8%)

Of course, the real story is not the day-to-day fluctuations, but the overall trend -- which has been down since the beginning of the month.

Bottom line: the Stock Market doesn't pick the President, the voters do.

[swag]

6. Bottom line well taken

But according to two DJIA indicators, the Dow would have to gain over 500 points in order to point to a Bush win.

I have posted a lot of caveats and provisos on these measures in the past, but I'm cutting to the shorthand today.

I don't take this shit as seriously as the folks at the brokerage houses who spout noise on CNBC do.

[swag]

7. by the way, as you can see from the chart, today's uptick is included