EVERY national poll is trending toward Kerry.....

[Sean Reynolds]

Either they have him in the lead, tied or down a few points but they're all trending in his favor. Yes, even GALLUP. IMO it's best to trend up heading into November than finding yourself losing the lead. As a Howard Dean supporter in the primaries I watched each lead of his, both in Iowa and New Hampshire, trend downward toward election day. I'm watching the same exact thing happen to Bush.

Gallup had him up 8, now he's only up 5.

Washington Post had Bush up last week, now he's down 2.

Rasmussen had Bush up pretty much since September, now Kerry has the slight edge.

The LA Times poll had Kerry down last time, now he's tied with Bush.

That AP poll last week showed Kerry beating Bush (I'm sure it's either expanded or stayed the same).

The only poll that doesn't show a trend toward Kerry is Zogby, where Kerry has been down 3 to Bush the past two days. BUT logic tells you that if a candidate is down 3 two days in a row he's probably gaining in the daily polling and will either cut into the lead or leapfrog the leader within a few days. I have a feeling tomorrow's Zogby numbers will show Kerry within 1 of Bush. Yet another trend favoring Kerry.

Now the question is, can he continue this trend? Only one week to go, let's hope he can do it!

[lancdem]

Bush had a huge day in Zogby's poll on Saturday (+7, if I recall)

and that will be gone from the sample tomorrow.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

1. Forget about the national polls. Kerry is taking the battlegrounds

And that's all that counts. It looks good in Ohio and good in Florida. I was worried about PA for awhile, but it looks like Kerry has sealed the deal there.
Here's how we're shaping up:

[LeftyMom]

11. Ohio looks great!

According to my in-laws's (who live in a small mennonite town in NW Ohio) there are many more K/E signs and stickers than B/C ones. That's amazing because thier town is so homogenous/conservative/white bread/upper middle class. The IL's say they're voting for Kerry, which surprised me, as they are Faux news and 700 club watchers who were disinclined to vote a few weeks ago.

Sorry if that's slightly OT, just had to share the good news from my Buckeye IL's.

[kostya]

14. Hope y'all are doing GOTV even in some small way though...

Don't get complacent at this point in any way shape or form!

[LeftyMom]

15. Not much I can do

from 3K miles away, but we're getting on the phone with relatives and reminding them to vote. We also let them know them know then Edwards was in Lima, but I don't think anybody made it to see him. :(

[PCIntern]

2. He's ALREADY leading...

All we have to do is get everyone out to vote...and in some states, get enough out to vote that it counteracts the cheating lying thieving going on. Those bastards are going to have Hell to pay if we catch them cheating. They should be afraid...be very afraid.

Remember how nervous George Senior was in the hotel room when Junior was going on and on about how his brother had it fixed in FL? Not again pal. We ain't giving it away this time.

And PA's a lock. THAT'S WHY it was so important to defeat my buddy Sam Katz for Mayor of Philly and to make sure Eddie was guv.

[Eurobabe]

3. trending blue....

[AlCzervik]

4. atrios is hinting at a poll from florida on cbs tonight

http://www.atrios.blogspot.com/

[kostya]

5. Let's hope Zogby is the outlier

As he's now pushing leaners so his 3% to Bush has a lot less undecideds than other polls. Which means they are breaking 50/50 not 67/33. But... it is just one poll and will probably trend to Kerry starting tomorrow. <fingers crossed>

[PCIntern]

6. I've been around a long time

and watched this stuff for decades. We are going to win. THere's no question. We are pumped, we have the numbers, we have the bases covered, we are shrewd mofo's, and we are motivated to vote. They are not gonna pull the same crap they did last time and this time we have a candidate around whom we are united and we are gonna see elected, no bullshit.

This one's a winner, and as Dan Rather said in 1992 on election night:

"CHANGE IS IN THE AIR"

[DemocratSinceBirth]

7. The Post Has It 50-48-1

where's the undecideds?????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????

[Awsi Dooger]

8. That's not completely accurate

The TIPP poll http://www.tipponline.com/ has moved from dead even four days ago to Bush 47, Kerry 42 as of today. True, the margin dipped from 48-41 yesterday.

The TIPP poll is included in CNN's poll of polls, and is equally responsible as Gallup for Bush's lead in their averaging of the polls.

[Beetwasher]

10. What the Hell Is the TIPP poll anyway?

Obviously right wing hacks..

[Awsi Dooger]

12. A relatively new polling group, launched in 1997

I've charted polls since '96 and really didn't hear about TIPP until the final week of the 2000 election. They started a 3 day tracking poll and received a little bit of national press.

The National Council of Public Polls listed them 3rd most accurate in 2000, even though the final poll had Bush ahead by 1.9%. TIPP did catch the move toward Gore. I looked at my Excel file of their first 2000 poll on October 30 and it had Bush ahead by almost 6 points. http://www.tipponline.com/election/2000/track9.HTM

TIPP is the polling partner of four nationally recognized publications - Investor's Business Daily, The Christian Science Monitor, Editor & Publisher magazine and CableWorld magazine.

[pabloseb]

19. Tipp was a big joke in 2000

Two days before election they had * 9 pts up... it's not that they detected the move toward gore, it's that they tried to cover their big republican asses at the last minute.

[Awsi Dooger]

20. I just looked at my old Excel file on TIPP; you're right

They went from Bush +9 to Bush +6 to Bush +2 in the last three polls, each one day apart.

[LuminousX]

9. SCLM reports: "Kerry trends upward in polls, no where to go but down."

[Generator]

13. Kick

I think I'd rather read this that what that asshole Hannity or Tweety had to say!

[high density]

16. We're beginning to see "The Closer"

:bounce: :bounce: :bounce:

[Doosh]

17. Don't forget, Harris had him down 7, now he's up 1!!!

[DeepModem Mom]

18. kick