ABC exit poll has B 51 - K 47 in early voting

[Goldmund]

And the freeptards are wetting their pants with glee. Here is which states do early voting:




Now, of course, this is a poll like any other, and their results are within the margin of error. But correct me if I'm wrong: Bush being up ONLY FOUR POINTS in these states isn't exactly good news for him, right?

Edit: Thanks to batchdem04 for the link: http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/story?id=199229&page=1

[Eric J in MN]

1. Did ABC give numbers by state? nt

nt

[Goldmund]

12. Don't think so.

[Javaman]

55. ABC can't get early voting numbers... that's against the law.

This is all bullshit, base on one of their bullshit polls

[kostya]

60. It's an exit poll, nothing wrong with asking voters who they

voted for as they are leaving.

[Sara Beverley]

64. Noting wrong with voters lying about who they voted for either.

Take these polls with a grain of salt. But then, we do know that in 2000 the exit polls showed Gore winning FL and that didn't mean a damn thing when the Gore votes were tossed out.

[Javaman]

81. if it was an exit pole, that's okay...

But it appeared in the first post as if it was the actual votes.

[Renew Deal]

92. It's NOT an exit poll.

It doesn't say that anywhere. Feel free to show me what I'm missing. This is from a phone poll.

[milkyway]

2. You're right. It's most of the country, excluding northeast and much of

midwest. Dem strongholds.

[swag]

3. From what we know if exit polling of such a sample, it's NO NEWS AT ALL

[GCP]

4. Seems like they're mostly red states

Apart from CA, I'd expect to see * in the lead in these areas.

[DemMother]

86. And it's not easy to do early voting in CA...there aren't that many

polling places--I'd have to make about a 20 minute plus drive (with good traffic) to vote. It would probably be more like a half hour each way.

[tritsofme]

5. It is my understanding that they took this from their tracking poll

data, I can only imagine what the MoE is for this data when it is only 9% of their total polling sample.

This number is absolutely worthless and tells us nothing.

[sonicx]

really? lol

[Goldmund]

Yes, that's true

[Parche]

6. early

Those are all the Bush states anyway, and only being up by 4 in them
suppposedly is not good

[sonicx]

7. almost no blue strongholds.

[Jeff in Cincinnati]

90. Exactly...

The map looks like a wierd photographic negative of the blue state/red state map. Almost no Kerry states have early voting. Bush should be up by 10 points at least.

[aquart]

8. California has early voting?

[AlCzervik]

22. i live in california and havent heard anything about early voting

[umtalal]

49. yes, but it touch screen voting if you trust that.

[AlCzervik]

54. i live in sacramento county, we have optical scan

i'm voting in person because i want to take my 10 year old with me.

[umtalal]

77. good idea. I am taking my tyke son along. yes, it is optical not touch.

[RevolutionStartsNow]

51. I voted in CA last Friday, not touchscreen

Anyone can vote (in my county anywyay) at the County Elections Office. Paper ballot for me.

[Beaverhausen]

74. Look at your sample ballot

the info is in there. Not a whole lot of places to do it but you can.

[JI7]

35. California has touch screens, but

you have to go to certain places to vote for that. they are different from the polling places whose address is listed on the sample ballots. those are only done on election day.

[jezebel]

9. That's not how I read their article. I don't believe they are talking

about exit polls. They are saying that in their daily tracking poll that 9% of those polled have already voted, and of those it was 51-47.
If anything I think this is good news for us, because it shows that their "likely voters" are more Republicans.

But maybe I'm wrong.

[kikiek]

30. Sounds like you have the true answer. So it is meaningless.

[Goldmund]

40. That's true

But my point was that even if their poll is correct, that is still good news for us. With those states, Bush should be leading by a far bigger margin than just 4.

[Gloria]

10. Are they trying to suppress the vote? or declare a winner, or what??

I never recall early voting being reported nationally like this before....

[Beetwasher]

11. It's HORRIBLE News For BUSH!

CA Just started early voting while the one's that started earlier were red states or very close and NY, NJ, IL and MA don't have it...

[mzmolly]

13. I'd definately want to see a breakdown by state.

;)

[JI7]

45. me too

i wonder what the numbers are when you include the battleground states only.

[DaveinMD]

14. good news for us

they need a bigger margin because almost all the states that don't do early voting are Democratic strongholds. The Republican base states get to vote for Bush.

[alcuno]

15. Right. I'm assuming it's an overall average.

Better If we knew the exit polling in battleground states. Many of the "big blue" states don't have early voting; I only see California.

[Mayberry Machiavelli]

16. Illinois, NY and most of New England not in this, hehe.

I'll take those odds.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

17. Given the red state bias there

I'd say Bush is in trouble!

[Walt Starr]

18. Oregon is out of the mix on that poll, too

This is a debacle for *. He could actually be losing a lot of the states he feels safe in because historically, Repugnants vote early or via absentee in HUGE numbers compared to the Democrats.

I won't be voting until Noivember 2, nor will most people I know.

[sui generis]

19. sounds like a manufactured poll

they weren't at my polling location. If they went to the "nice" polling locations in far north Dallas they would have been asking mostly white uptight gated community republicans how they voted.

[Goldmund]

27. It isn't a real exit poll

It's a sub-sample of people who have already voted from their tracking poll.

[Guaranteed]

20. ROFL almost ALL red states. WHOOPEDY DOO! nt

[high density]

21. What is ABC News trying to do?

:crazy:

[batchdem04]

23. LINK

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/story?id=199229&page=1

Its just from the tracking poll. They didn't go state by state.

Nine percent of "likely" voters in the ABC News tracking poll say they've voted for president, either by absentee ballot or early voting, a number that's jumped in the last week. Fifty-one percent say they went for George W. Bush, 47 percent for John Kerry.

[Goldmund]

25. Thanks -- I'll put it in my post

[high density]

39. Yup, just another crappy poll ***NOT AN EXIT POLL***

This poll was conducted Oct. 22-25 among a random national sample of 2,414 adults, including 2,084 registered voters and 1,666 likely voters. The results have a 2.5-point error margin for the likely voter sample. ABC News and The Washington Post are sharing data collection for this tracking poll, then independently applying their own models to arrive at likely voter estimates.


So 9% of that sample says that they have already voted. Of that 9%, 51% say they have voted for *. What a useless statistic.


That doesn't mean Bush is "winning" the absentee vote; the difference is within sampling tolerances. And among all likely voters, including those waiting for Election Day, the race is essentially tied: Forty-nine percent support Kerry and 48 percent Bush, with 1 percent for Ralph Nader in interviews Friday through Monday.

[doni_georgia]

24. Mostly red states with early voting. Most of the repugs I know have

already voted. Most of the Dems I know are waiting until election day (less time for them to lose our votes). Nothing to worry about here at all.

[cynatnite]

37. I'm waiting

I've been on the fence whether or not to vote early and today I almost did. Something told me to wait until election day and now I will. :)

[cynatnite]

26. Not Good for *

Most of those are shrub states and him leading by so narrow a margin at this point just isn't good.


It would be interesting to see this on a state by state basis. I think that picture would tell us a lot more.

[Julien Sorel]

28. Almost every red state is there, and big time blue states are missing.

The one potentially mitigating factor is that Democrats are fired up this year, and might be out voting early as a result. I've gotten two robocalls from the AZ Democratic Party urging me to vote early.

[DaveinMD]

29. happy happy joy joy

we are going to win.

[Jersey Devil]

31. This does not count new voters, only LVs in the tracking poll

So anyone who answered that they didn't vote in 2000 or any of the other questions designed to determine what an LV is does not come into this poll at all.

[DaveinMD]

36. that makes it even better

Just look at the states that don't do early voting. They are almost all solidly Democratic states including the state that will give us our best margin. (NY)

[Jersey Devil]

42. I agree, this is good - and it should not be called an "exit poll" (nt)

x

[sonicx]

32. Kerry leads Independents overall 51-44

yeah!!!!

[pmbryant]

33. Sample size is 150 for this 51-47 margin. Yes, merely 150.

The ABC poll had 1666 likely voters, of which 9% voted early. That makes 150.

So pay no attention to the 51-47 margin. It means nothing.

The margin of error on a sample size that tiny is huge.

--Peter

[DaveinMD]

38. even if

the margin is correct, it would be great news for us.

[Renew Deal]

95. Also only 5 Gore states.

Teh rest were Bush states. Whatever

[bluestateguy]

34. That's mostly red states

Illinois, Pennslyvania, New York, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Maryland and DC are all not included.

[Bleacher Creature]

41. Any links to the Freeptards? n/t

[Goldmund]

44. As you wish

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1257866/posts

[mzmolly]

43. Here's a link.

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/story?id=199229&page=1

Early voting is more prevalent in the West than in other regions. (Oregon is one reason — all voting there is by mail — and there's high absentee voting in several other Western states.) Early voters are more likely to be older, women and following the race very closely. They're also a bit more likely to be Republicans than Democrats.

As with any small subgroup, there's greater sampling variability in data on early voters. Given the increased opportunities for early voting in many states, they bear watching as their ranks grow in the coming days.

...

Among groups, there's a sharp regional difference in vote preferences: Kerry ahead by 56 percent to 41 percent in his home region, the Northeast, and by 54 percent to 45 percent in the West. It's a 52 percent-46 percent Bush-Kerry race in the most populous region, the South, and a 50 percent-46 percent Bush-Kerry contest in the Midwest. The biggest difference from 2000 is the West, better at the moment for Kerry than it was for Al Gore.

I don't get the Midwest 50-46 in favor of Bush? But I am encouraged by the numbers in the west 54-45 in favor of Kerry.

[scarletwoman]

46. You didn't provide a link, so we don't know the internal data

So, I have several questions:

* In how many polling places in a given state was this survey taken?
* Were these urban, suburban or rural precincts?
* What criteria were used in choosing the precincts in which to collect exit polling data?

Truth is, my biggest worry at this point is that the corporate media will be feeding us FALSE polling data, in order to set us up to accept a "close" election (which will end up back in the courts) -- or even a bush* "win".

What it comes down to for me is this: are there truly more stupid people in this country than people who are capable of critical thinking? If the answer is "yes", then we are truly f**ked...

sw

on edit: Okay, I see you have added the link -- I'm gonna go and read...

[tinrobot]

47. Texas

Probably almost all of the 4% lead is from Texas.

[Doosh]

48. 13 repuke strongholds

California also has early voting, but I doubt Bush is elading there or in Michigan. Dem strongholds of Illinois, NJ, NY, Mass and Connecticut haven't even voted yet

[Cush]

50. mostly Bush states, yet only 4 points ahead

I wouldn't be bragging

[NewYorkerfromMass]

53. But Califiornia, and Michigan should help balance it out

I don't like the spin that can be put on this.

[DaveinMD]

56. California

is balanced by Texas and their early voting started later than Texas. We will win Michigan by 5-6 points. Not the crazy amount that the Bush base states will go for him by. Our safe states are not voting yet. Relax. This is great news for us.

[umtalal]

52. Is ABC telling us to stay home because Bush won already? Liability any 1?

[DaveinMD]

58. no

its one question in a poll. A sample of just over 100.

[exliontamer]

57. So if the entire Northeast & Illinois weren't allowed to vote...

... Bush would be up by 4?

Yeah, that's gotta be great news for the Freeps.

Sheeesh...

[NMDemDist2]

59. AZ is early mail in, haven't heard there is "in person" polls other

than at the county offices :shrug:

[zaj]

68. Yes, they have walk up polls open in AZ.

IIRC, for 2 weeks before election day.

[DemocracyInaction]

61. Early voting this year has a new meaning---deal with it

The Chistian (may God fry them for using that name) rightwing nutcases are preaching from the pulpit to vote early (before someone enlightens them about the creep---gee, have something to hide??). Therefore, I fully expect that a shitpile and a half of these early voters are PRO BUSH. This one time where numbers are not in favor of the Dems.

[MAlibdem]

62. hard to say

EXTRAORDNIARILY irresponsible to release that data, in my opinion

[Awsi Dooger]

63. Why are we trying to analyze the significance of 150 or 200 votes?

Same thing happened in one thread last week, when Zogby used a poor word choice on his website and made it seem like early voters favored Bush 50-48. Even if that had been true, a quick check of his numbers indicated the sample size was maybe 200 people. I tried to emphasize that in the thread, but raging analysis continued.

Identical realities here: 9% of 2000 or less. A net change of 6 or 8 votes puts Kerry ahead, and DU rejoices. Instead of dismissing the sample as centered primarily in red states.

[elperromagico]

65. It would be valuable to figure up how well Bush did in these states

against Gore in the 2000 election. I'll get on it. :P

[zaj]

66. Democrats are playing catchup in Early voting... Republicans have...

... always done better at getting their voters to vote early. This is the first year the Dems have pushed hard for their voters to vote early.

That early voting tends to be Republican and that the states that can be polled are heavily RED states says that Bush should be leading by more than 4% in the exit polls right now.

[RevolutionStartsNow]

69. Bingo!

I was just going to post that. Traditionally repubs have a much wider lead in early voting. I forget the numbers I read but it was a significant margin in past elections.

So this is very good news for us.

[DaveinMD]

72. the sample

is 100 people. The variance in such a sample can be huge.

[sonicx]

73. We are leading early voting in swing states. No catch up.

Oh no! they lead Texas!! :eyes:

[Zynx]

67. If Bush is only winning by four points in THOSE states, I'm happy.

[swag]

70. Chris at mydd.com has sussed this poll - and it's not good for Bush

www.mydd.com

"Sound like good news for Bush, right? Well, I have done some quick analysis of the states where early voting is taking place, and the opposite appears to be true. I know of twenty-three states with early voting: AZ, AR, CA, CO, FL, GA, ID, IA, KS, LA, MI, MT, NV, NM, NC, OK, OR, TN, TX, VT, WA, WV and VA. According to Dave Leip, in 2000 Bush received 27,294,421 votes in states, while Gore received 24,356,383. In other words, Bush won 52.8% of the two-party in these fifteen states in 2000, while Gore only won 47.2%. Thus, if the ABC poll is accurate, Bush is under-performing his 2000 levels by 2 points, while Kerry is euqalling Gore's level by 2-3 points. This is actually bad news for Bush. If Kerry is losing in Republican areas by two fewer points than Gore was in 2000, then things look good for Kerry indeed.

Before we get too excited, the margin of error on this subset of the ABC poll was plus or minus eight percent, so a difference of two points might not be significant. Further, some of the voting was done by absentee ballots, which could be from everywhere. However, 51-47 is clearly lower than Bush's margin among early voters in 2000, which according to NAES actually was in the double digits with Bush hovering just above 55%. Further, Kerry's over-performance on Gore among early voters also seems to be real, as Democrats in Florida and Iowa are voting at a rate higher than their share of registered voters. These are definitely reason to be chipper."

[LSK]

71. no OH, PA, IL, WI, MO, NY, the rest of the northeast.....

So he has a 4 point lead in states that he is expected to win mostly.....

[loudsue]

75. Remember, too, DUers, that Rove told everyone to vote absentee, and early

And we KNOW how the right wing gets in lock-step when "authority figures" crack the whip.

My guess is, we're seeing about half of the energized repukes already voting....and bush is up by 4%.

The important thing is to keep all Dem voters pumped, and all the new Dem voters excited, too. We need to hop on these voting booths like a chicken on a June bug, ANYTIME between now and when the polls close on Nov. 2.

I voted early today in N.C. The county I live in is small. I truly believe almost 10% of the county population was at the voting office when I voted today. AND WE HAVE KERRY/EDWARDS COMING TO RALEIGH/DURHAM TOMORROW FOR A RALLY IN DORTON ARENA (Fairgrounds) at 7:00 pm!!!

NC Duers....be there or be square!!! We're going to meet at the Whole Foods Mkt. on Wade Avenue and Ridge Rd. at 4:45 pm to eat before the rally! Come join us!!

:bounce: NORTH CAROLINA IS IN PLAY!!!! :bounce:

Let's just keep the focus, and make sure every single Dem we know votes!!

:kick::kick::kick:

[elperromagico]

76. Bush won those yellow states 50-46 in 2000.

Gore won the grey states 50-46.

The yellow states cast about 47% of all votes cast in the 2000 election; the grey states (and green Oregon) cast about 53%.

Just a couple of tidbits.

[atre]

78. Look at the states with early voting... that is GREAT news for Kerry

Roughly half to two thirds of the states with early voting are states that are predicted to go Bush by 20-40 percent margins.

[Hamlette]

79. breakdown by blue vs red.

Total electoral votes for states with early voting is 263.

The way I count it, the blue states with early voting represent 82 electoral votes (CA, OR, MI, VT). The red states with early voting represent 154 electoral votes. I didn't count Florida.

Put Florida in the red states and they account for 69% of the states with early voting. Blue states with early voting are 31%. If you make Florida blue, the blue states account for 41% of the electoral votes in early voting states, and the red states are 59%. And Bush is pulling 51%? Shouldn't it be closer to 59%?

Seems we're fine for Bush to be ahead now.

(edited to fix the percentage reported for Bush.)

[progressivebydesign]

80. NOT A REAL EXIT POLL!!

Slavkomae posted above.. this is a sampling of the THEIR tracking poll participants who have already voted!! It's not REAL.

<<Nine percent of "likely" voters in the ABC News tracking poll say they've voted for president, either by absentee ballot or early voting, a number that's jumped in the last week. Fifty-one percent say they went for George W. Bush, 47 percent for John Kerry>>

The freeps can zip their pants back up!

[Nicholas_J]

97. Yup

And their tracking polls participants divided in the sam proportions as all their other polls 39 percent Republican, 30 percent Democrat, 31 percent Independent.

They are still trying to influence remining voters by giving the impression of a big lead.

[demokatgurrl]

82. Good, keep those numbers out there- it will motivate our voters. n/t

[lancdem]

83. This 4-point margin is much less than what they should have

at this point.

[Stuckinthebush]

84. Looking at the map,

the results are bad news for Bush. Most of the early voting states are Bush states.

[underpants]

88. ABC GMA said most are white,older,Republican, women

Only 51%?

[cindyw]

85. Nobody is voting early in CA. If it exists 98% of the people are ignoring

it. So those number don't include us here.

[ciaobox]

87. Um, this is stupid

Most of those are inbred states.

[Norquist Nemesis]

89. Well...I say GOOD!!!

It just brings out the Dem vote MORE! Not only that, those Nader voters just might change their minds as they're stepping into the polling booth and realize their vote counts for Bush unless they vote for Kerry.

[Renew Deal]

91. This is a poll

Not hard numbers. It goes against all of the hard numbers I've seen.

[Nicholas_J]

93. All year ABC

Has been using the Gallop/TNS methodology for doing all its poll, so i is more than likely that they used it here, calling 39 percent Republicans, 30 percent Democrats, and 30 percent Independent to get these results. Actual numbers from the states that are issuing them gife very differing results, and these are actual numbers, not polls.

[1gobluedem]

94. Michigan has early voting?

I've lived in Michigan my entire life and I have never heard of early voting here. We have absentee voting but, to my knowledge, those results aren't released until after the election and it would be difficult to conduct an exit poll since absentee ballots are generally mailed in or dropped at the city clerk's office.

[yellowcanine]

96. It is meaningless without state by state breakdowns. From what I have

heard, early voting in battleground states has favored Dems.

[LynnTheDem]

98. So bush is only up by 4 in his own red states with an 8 pt MOE

And this the freeptards think is good.

Ok.

They also think screaming as you lie bleeding to death with your limbs blown off is also good. As long as it's not them doing the screaming and bleeding to death.

Vote bush in, and it WILL be them, tho. And that would be good.

[BUSHOUT]

99. Better title: ABC poll likely voters: Kerry-49 Bush-48 n/t

[Moderator]

100. locking -- misleading subject line

this is not an exit poll