New Zogby state polls... more weird every day

[pabloseb]

They appeared at realclearpolitics.com, but the link actually corresponds to yesterday's polls.

FL: chimp + 4
OH: chimp + 2
PA: Kerry + 4
WI: Kerry + 2
IA: Tie
MN: Kerry + 2
MI: Kerry + 5
CO: Kerry + 2
NM: chimp + 5
NV: chimp + 3


This somehow doesn't make sense... NV closer than NM? Up in CO but down 4 in FL? Oh well, guess we'll have to wait until Nov 2.

[pabloseb]

1. Ok, here's today's link

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&ncid=578&e=3&u=/nm/20041026/pl_nm/campaign_poll_tuesday_dc

[DaveinMD]

2. Zogby

is awful at state polling.

[West Coast Democrat]

6. True! He was off on many senate races in 2000 and 2002

[Technowitch]

3. Just remember...

The only poll that matters is the one that's already begun in some states and which ends on November 2nd.

[Doosh]

4. Zogby is the worst state poller around

I remember he had Kerry and Dean practically tied heading into NH

[Zynx]

5. Actually, he had a last minute break for Kerry, but I think it was to

cover his ass. I honestly think he made the numbers up.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

19. You Remember That Too.....

He reported that his Sunday tracking poll for one day had Dean and Kerry tied...


There were like six or seven polls showing Kerry with a double digit lead....


I was laughing my ass off at Zogby's numbers....


That was almost as big a yuck as him having Gore one point ahead of Bush in Cali on 11/6/00

No

Having Rick Lazio beating Hillary Clinton was a bigger yuck...

I think he takes his results and than adds or subtracts points to make a better narrative...

[lancdem]

7. They're still weird, but not as weird as two days ago

Now Kerry is only behind in one blue state.

[wanpete]

8. We really just cant worry about polls anymore folks

please, please, let's just keep our eyes on the prize and the real polls on November 2nd. I ordered my Nov 2 tee. Can't wait to wear it!

[DemocracyInaction]

9. Actually

that's about the way I expected it to be. I think it is more "on" than most I've seen. I don't know what the problem is in NM but it's possible that 2000 was just the result of some lazy voting because they don't seem to fit in the pattern of the rest of the 'west'. I thought there was a chacne in CO. I will accept Iowa as a tie because it's been horrible in other polls and I sort of know better. And about what it should be in WI. MN and MI look right. Bottom line.....we are damn lucky to get ANY red state but are fighting like hell to keep the blue. Ohio has enough right wingnuts in it to make it this way. Hope is in CO with new citizens, etc.

[montana500]

10. get real

americanresearchgroup.com

Bush Kerry Nader DK Oct

Florida 46% 49% 1% 4% 23-25

Ohio 47% 49% * 4% 23-25

Pennsylvania 47% 50% * 3% 23-25



Survey USA:

OH: Kerry 50, chimp 47
PA: Kerry 53, chimp 45
MO: Chimp 52, Kerry 45
AR: Chimp 51, Kerry 45

[montana500]

12. nyet

"that's about the way I expected it to be. I think it is more "on" than most I've seen"


Zogby's Florida and Ohio polls are outliers. Every other FL and OH pols have Kerry leads.

[DemocracyInaction]

18. I'm looking at things like WI, MN, MI----we are winning there and

I don't agree with these polls that have it tied, etc. I was expecting things to be great in Iowa but apparently they are not so I will accept a tie instead of Bush trouncing Kerry which I think is bullshit. Florida I don't give a fucking rat's ass about because Kerry could be winning it 99 to 1 and it will NEVER be declared a Kerry win---go to the bank on that one. And, don't think any of these red states are a great roll over to the Dems. Too many fall either into the fundies group OR this war shit. At best Ohio is 50-50. I'm hoping a bunch of the stupid white men go deer hunting as of Nov. 1st to give us the edge.

[sonicx]

22. Kerry AND bush's internals show kerry up slightly in OH

that's why there are reports of Bush's aides being worried.

and we aren't losing IA. too many dem voters.

[montana500]

23. well...

"I think is bullshit. Florida I don't give a fucking rat's ass about because Kerry could be winning it 99 to 1 and it will NEVER be declared a Kerry win---go to the bank on that one. "

I think Florida is the most important state. There are too many lawyers down there for Jeb to steal it. Look for major issues elsewhere.


"At best Ohio is 50-50. I'm hoping a bunch of the stupid white men go deer hunting as of Nov. 1st to give us the edge. "

Ohio has been Kerry +2 in all the polls. Ohio and Florida are the key states. If we dont win either we lose.

[sonicx]

15. no, CO is NOT more likely than FL or OH

Kerry's tied or up a little in most 0H/FL polls. in 2000, OH had more dem voters than GOP ones. They just killed Gore in Independents.

[pabloseb]

16. I see your points, but...

NM has a very popular democratic governor and no state that Gore carried in 2000 is looking so bad now... just doesn't make much sense.

Likewise, FL and OH look much better than CO in nearly every poll. And the fact that Kerry is campaigning in FL and OH but not in CO suggests that his internals agree.

[calico1]

11. Isn't the Zogby polling based on people who

sign up to answer the questions? If so, isn't it possible the freepers have mobilized to get people signed up?

[pabloseb]

13. No, this are standard phone polls

Zogby discontinued his "interactive poll" experiments.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

21. Zogby Should Discontinue All His Polls...

He was the most inaccurate pollster in 2002


http://www.ncpp.org/2002SenGovPoll/2002ElectionPolls.html

[T Bone]

14. Really, Up big in MI and MN but behind in WI that does not make sense

really.

[pabloseb]

17. Actually, Zogby has Kerry +2 in WI

That one poll makes sense.

[ZombieNixon]

20. Zogby is a terrible state poller.

His national numbers are good, but his state polls are awful. Remember how off he was in 2002? I think I know why: he has a good methodology that works on a nationwide level, but state demographics are different and he goes out of his way to make sure that his samples are NOT random. A good nationwide methodology will not work the same way in Massachusetts as it does in Nebraska because of demographic and party registration differences between states.

[DaveinMD]

24. a good pollster

models the vote for each state. I don't know how he does this in the state.