10/26 ELECTION MODEL: KERRY 319 EV, 98.5%, 51.36% OF THE VOTE

[TruthIsAll]

http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/

[iconoclastic cat]

1. TIA, have I told you lately that I love you?

The way that one loves a $28 bottle of shiraz.

[Hamlette]

2. how did this get buried so fast?

I've been waiting all day for this!

yippie!

[MassLiberal]

5. thanks for this!

I've been waiting all day for this too.

[Randi_Listener]

3. I love it.

More!

[shawmut]

4. thanks, TIA

kick

[George_S]

6. Bet it's better than that

Some polls have Bush too high right now.

[calmblueocean]

7. I don't always understand it, but...

I love it! Keep it up!

[TruthIsAll]

8. AM kick

.

[Renew Deal]

9. Good job as always.

When do you think your numbers will become solid? At what point did they become representative of the outcome 4 years ago?

[TruthIsAll]

17. They have been consistent all along; Bush's ceiling is at 47%.

Kerry has been leading Bush since Feb, until the convention, when Bush pulled ahead. Link to graph #1. Kerry caught up with Bush on Sept 20.

He is pulling ahead now.

As of now, I look for Kerry to end up winning 52-47-1 / 330 EV

[geekgrrl]

10. this one also looks great!!

I think this is what the projected map will end up looking like:
http://www.electoral-vote.com/pred/index.html

Polls that show Bush ahead are oversampling repugs. Or just asking strange questions- or just generally bias. You can manipulate a poll to show you anything (I teach intro to soc and have taken a lot of sociology methods courses).

So, I am going by this vote predictor- and every day it looks better and better.

Landslide her we come!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! (and I'll be dancing in my street)

[molly]

11. I LOVE these posts - positive and informed!

:kick: :kick: :kick: :kick: :kick:

[jeanmarc]

12. 60/40 split?

Have you considered running an alternate scenario where the split on undecideds isn't traditional? Because I have yet to see any evidence in this current campaign of this occuring this time. I'd love to see the % if it was 60/40 or even a bit less.

[TruthIsAll]

13. You should read the info on the site: I show it for 50%,55%,60%,67%,75%

Its on the front screen of the report (link from home page).

For 50%, Kerry's win prob is 95%.
For 75%, its a hair below 100%

[jeanmarc]

16. Gracias! [nt]

[powergirl]

14. Thanks for the welcome news

I can't take 4 more years of this sh*t.

[obnoxiousdrunk]

15. Thanks TIA

you made my day. As I beleived all along Kerry in a landslide.

[TruthIsAll]

18. My gut and my model both say SOLID WIN, MAYBE A LANDSLIDE.

TIA

[Kahuna]

19. I'm bookmarking this one, TIA. Looks like a winner to me.

:thumbsup: