Is a "Reagan landslide" possible for Kerry?

[friesianrider]

Now, I wasn't alive for this but my Mom (who is a loyal Dem) says that Reagan's "landslide" really wasn't that much of a landslide at all - he won the EC votes by a "landslide", but in fact the popular vote was very close. According to her, Reagan won every state by just a slim majority but still won the state's EV, thus it was perceived as a landslide. So, do you think this possible for Kerry - especially in traditionally red states?

This inevitably brings up the problem I have with the EC. If every state had results with * winning the state by just ONE vote more than Kerry, Bush would win every state's electoral votes, even though he only won each state by a single vote. Tell me this isn't ridiculous...? (can you tell I'm not a big fan of the EC?)

[Sean Reynolds]

1. Yes Reagan never had a popular vote landslide......

However I doubt it would be possible for Kerry. Too many states are solid in Bush's camp to set up a landslide in the electoral college. I'd guess Kerry CAN have a better showing than projected (as can Bush)...but in terms of him takin 49 states and the District of Columbia, it ain't going to happen.

He MAY have a few surprise states (Arkansas, POSSIBLY Virginia). But outside that I'd be shocked if he picked up any other Bush states Bush is projected to win.

[maxsolomon]

2. you must not be 18th c. slaveowning landed gentry

because to us, the EC is the saving grace of the republic!

[TimeToGo]

3. It is kind of silly

And there are a lot of people working for new ideas. I think at present Maine is the only state that doesn't have a winner take all -- if there are more, there aren't many.

Look into the work of political scientist George Edwards.

[ZombieNixon]

12. Nebraska has a proportional split as well,

and there's the referendum in CO that's looking increaingly unlikely to pass.

[TimeToGo]

18. Yes, thanks --

[Still_Loves_John]

4. Well,

if Bush won every state by one vote, he would still win the popular vote by 50 votes, so it wouldn't matter. If, in all the states Bush won, he won by one vote, and Kerry won all his states by a wide margin but Bush still won the electoral college, that would be a problem. Your scenario is just a close election, and one that Bush would win whether we used the popular vote or the electoral college.

[ZombieNixon]

14. You can actually win the presidency with only 11 states.

With a 65% voter turnout, that works out to less that 30% of the popular vote if you win all those states by one vote. The catch is those states include CA and NY as well as TX and GA, and when those states vote as a block, you know the entire country's feeling something.

[DaveinMD]

5. It was pretty big margin

but not a big majority. He won around 50 percent of the popular vote, but Carter only won 41.

[pretzel4gore]

22. at the time, the mediawhores still were thought legitimate

i can recall the 'mediawhores' raving about carter's $58 billion deficit in the last year; the mediawhores literally screamed murder on front pages and all the newsmagazines....a couple years later reagan ran a $200 plus billion deficit (the first of many), it was on business pages only (ie: no problemo)...
reagan was no where near as popular as the lying media claims...i think kerry will win overwhelmingly (the media will say it's close, very close) even in 'red' states.....the USA has been CONQUERED and all the fukkin voting on earth not change that. Clinton was the most powerful elected official on earth, yet he couldn't protect his good name, and the nazipoos hounded him from the get go....same thing will happen to kerry.

[demokatgurrl]

6. Definitely possible, but I don't want to build my hopes up--

But I heard Carville speak today and he is convinced Kerry's "gonna win BIG".

[friesianrider]

20. Begala said the same at my campus...

He said "Kerry's gonna win this thing, by 3-5%".

I definitely don't think they're just spouting positive energy either.

[LSK]

7. ummm Bush didnt win pop vote in 2000 and hes hated more now

So why wouldnt it be a landslide both ways????

[RaleighNCDUer]

8. Or more aptly,

If * won 49 states by 1 vote each, but lost California, he could lose the popular vote by many millions, and still have a landslide victory.

But it won't happen.

All Kerry has to do is pick up 5% which is now under the radar -- 1st time voters, unpolled because of cell phones, etc. -- just 5% in every state would give him a landslide. It's too close in too many places, and I don't see any former Gore voters going for * (except Zell).

Barring cheating, it's a lock.

[wanpete]

9. If you are a praying person, now is the time to hit your knees !

What a wonderful thing this would be!

[tritsofme]

10. Reagan won 52% in 1980; 59% in 1984

Keep in mind Carter only got 42% of the vote, no way Bush goes that low.

But the independent John Anderson did pull in about 8% of the vote in 1980.

I don't Kerry winning 50-52% would produce a big EC landslide as it did for Reagan in 1980, because Bush will end up with 48-50% himself.

[Doosh]

11. Anderson hurt Carter a little

He was a liberal republican with a democrat as VP, a true unity ticket that took way more votes from Carter than Reagan, Carter lost many states by tiny margins. Had Anderson been out of the race it would've been closer, but Reagan would've won anyway.

With no Anderson, Carter would've at least won Arkansas, Vermont, Delaware, Tennessee, New York, Massachusetts, and Maine

maybe Kentucky and North Carolina as well.

The results electorally would've been something like

Reagan- 407
Carter- 131

[Devil Dog Dem]

13. 100 EC is doable,

But not 200, which is what most experts consider a landslide.
Every president excpet Ford since Johnson has won or lost reelection by at least 200 EC votes.

[ZombieNixon]

16. Keep in mind that Johnson's landslide

in '64 was less of an EC landslide than Reagan in '84, but the popular vote margin was wider. It all depends on which states you're talking about.

[KharmaTrain]

15. I Posted About This Last Weekend...Very Similar

Carter ran the Rose Garden strategy...not campaigning much while he attended to the Iran mess while Raygun ran around the country and drew bigger and bigger crowds.

The big story on election day/night was the early release of results that showed Raygun doing well in the east coast and that he rung up a lot of key states early...so much that it depressed Democratic votes in the Midwest and West not only costing Carter the election but also the Democrats lost control of the Senate.

This time Bunnypants is using the Rose Colored Glasses strategy and Kerry's running all over his flank...using a growing network of people who feel more negative about this asshole than any Repugnican felt about Carter in '80.

I spent a lot of that campaign supporting John Anderson...an Independent Repugnican who I thought was more Progressive than Carter, but when it came down to brass tacks, I came home and voted for Carter...and never regretted it.

Another interesting election comparison is 1960...sorry, I didn't vote in that one.

Cheers!

[DemocratSinceBirth]

19. I Would Hardly Call Anderson A Repugnican...

He left that party in 1980 and never looked back....

[Gothmog]

17. Good comparison

A similar landslide could occur this year in favor of Kerry/Edwards.

[Hamlette]

21. the landslide was 1984, not 1980

reagan took 535 electoral votes and 59%, Mondale took 40% and 13 electoral votes.

[POAS]

23. Get used to saying

"Kerry Republicans"

The crossover vote will turn what could be a squeeker into a Reagan style "landslide" just as the so-called Reagan Democrats did for Ronnie Raygun.