Tracking polls 101: How to read them, what to make of them (Joe Trippi)

[truthpusher]

I think this is new from Joe Trippi - forgive me if it's not:

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• October 26, 200 | 5:56 p.m. ET

Tracking polls 101: How to read them, what to make of them (Joe Trippi)

I see a lot of comments and questions around the Net about tracking polls— so I thought I should take a run at explaining how they work.

First off, most tracking polls are started with three nights of data. Then as night four's data is entered, the first night’s data is subtracted. This cycle continues, with the freshest 3 nights of data combined to generate each result reported in your morning newspaper, or your favorite blog or Web site.

<SNIP>

But let’s look at what had to happen on the single night of October 15th to cause this reported result. We are dropping Oct 10th’s 48% to 48% result, and adding in its place the night of Oct. 15. This means that on Oct. 15th, Candidate A had to receive 51% of the vote and candidate B had to receive 45% to create the two-point swing reported as the three day result of Oct 13–15.

read more:

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/5445086/

[Tesibria]

1. And -- on that note -- New Zogby #

WISCONSIN
----10/24 - 10/25 - 10/26
B - 48.3% - 47.6% - 46.0%
K - 45.0% - 46.1% - 47.9%

PENNSYLVANIA
----10/24 - 10/25 - 10/26
B - 45.4% - 44.8% - 44.6%
K - 47.3% - 47.8% - 49.3%

[Tesibria]

2. More - OH and NM

OHIO (uh oh)
-----24th -- 25th -- 26th
B - 47.1% - 45.9% - 46.3%
K - 42.2% - 44.9% - 43.9%

NEW MEXICO (tide turning?)
-----24th -- 25th -- 26th
B - 49.0% - 50.3% - 48.3%
K - 44.0% - 41.7% - 42.5%

[Tesibria]

3. More - MN - MI - IA

MINNESOTA
----25th -- 26th -- 27th
B - 44.8% - 42.5% - 44.2%
K - 46.0% - 47.5% - 45.8%

MICHIGAN
----25th -- 26th -- 27th
B - 42.4% - 43.0% - 44.3%
K - 52.4% - 52.4% - 48.9%

IOWA
----25th -- 26th -- 27th
B - 46.9% - 47.4% - 44.8%
K - 44.6% - 43.7% - 45.3%

[Tesibria]

4. And ... FL and CO

FLORIDA
----24th -- 25th -- 26th
B - 48.5% - 47.5% - 49.0%
K - 46.4% - 47.2% - 45.2%

COLORADO
----24th -- 25th -- 26th
B - 45.4% - 47.4% - 46.7%
K - 49.0% - 48.0% - 48.5%