Very good news among internals of new American Research Group state polls

[Awsi Dooger]

In Ohio, Florida, and Pennsylvania.

Not only do all three show Kerry in the lead, but each one indicates Kerry may be gaining among independents and soft Republicans. Kerry leads by 8% among independents in both Florida and Pennsylvania, according to ARG, and +6% among Ohio independents. Independents are particularly critical in Florida, where our new registers since 2000 are only 50/50 compared to the GOP, but a shockingly high percentage of newly registered independents. (on edit: I forgot to mention Kerry's lead among independents has risen significantly in all three states, compared to September ARG polls. Those had Kerry ahead by 3-4% with independents)

The ARG polls in those states finally show Kerry drawing 9% or more among Republicans, 9% in Ohio and 10% each in Florida and Pennsylvania. In September ARG state polls, none of those states gave Kerry higher than 7 or 8% among Republicans.

Granted, the ARG polls are a mere 600 people each, a surprisingly meager sample from a company that seems to know what it's doing otherwise. For all the warranted complaints on DU regarding improperly weighted polls, ARG makes proper alterations with each state. In Florida and Pennsylvania they include 4% more Democrats than Republicans, and 1% more Democrats than Republicans in Ohio. All three figure to be very close to the patrisan voter breakdown in those states.

Oh yeah, ARG also gives Kerry an 86-10 lead among blacks in Florida, much more sensible than some nonsense we've seen elsewhere.

ARG should be coming out with more state polls soon, along with their monthly national poll and Bush approval rating. ARG has not been heard from since October 2-4 with those numbers.

[meti57b]

1. Thank you for posting that!

[sonicx]

2. cool, where are these numbers?

[Awsi Dooger]

4. Go to their website and click on the individual state poll

http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/

That leads to the breakdown.

On the left hand column of the main website, there is a link with all 50 states plus DC from the September ARG polls. Actually, the September breakdowns were better, since they included by men, women, etc. I'm not sure why ARG simplified their internals closer to the election.

[sonicx]

6. the good news about FL independents

Gore only won them by less than 1%.

And Kerry's doing stronger than him in Democratic voters too.

WHEEE!!!

[Awsi Dooger]

7. More Florida good news; apparent decline of Ralph Nader

He's not even polling 1% among Florida Democrats, according to ARG! They actually having him drawing 1% from Bush but not Kerry. In September, 2% of Florida Democrats were choosing Nader and 1% "other".

Another hidden reason behind Kerry's climb in Pennsylvania and especially Ohio, according to ARG: previous ARG polls included Nader, who was drawing 1%, apparently from Kerry. Nader is not on the ballot in those states, and ARG polls are now taking that into account.

[lancdem]

3. Great news!

[Randi_Listener]

5. Excellent news.

GOTV

[jefferson_dem]

8. Thanks! Peel off a few more soft repukes and keep edge with inds = WIN

[Quixote1818]

9. The Newspaper Endorsement Sweep May Have Helped