Looks like Hawaii will get some 527 ads (based on the tied polls)

[sonicx]

WASHINGTON -- A pair of polls indicating that President Bush was slightly ahead of Senator John F. Kerry in traditionally Democratic Hawaii is prompting three independent groups that have been supporting the Democrat to consider advertising in a state whose four Electoral College votes equal that of hotly contested Maine and New Hampshire.

The Media Fund, MoveOn.org, and possibly Americans Coming Together, are expected to announce as early as today an array of activity, with the first likely to broadcast radio ads, the second possibly airing television spots, and the third possibly joining in the TV ads, according to high-level figures at the groups.

"We're all trying to figure out is this real or not," said one of the group leaders who spoke on the condition of anonymity. "Hopefully if we put a little bit of money there -- where there hasn't been any spent -- we can shore things up."

(snip)

At the moment, the Kerry campaign has no plans to advertise in Hawaii. Officials believe that the Hawaii poll's showing for Bush, 43 percent, represents the peak vote the president will attain in the state.

"I don't think the president's vote in the end will ever get higher than his highest horse race number," Kerry adviser Tad Devine told reporters Sunday during a conference call.

(snip/more)

http://www.boston.com/news/politics/president/articles/2004/10/26/three_groups_consider_ads_to_try_to_trim_presidents_edge/

[ClevelandSportsCurse]

1. Since when did Hawaii trend conservative?

I thought it was always in the Democratic column. At least it was that way in 2000.

[LuminousX]

2. Good, the Hawaii economy could use some money pumped into it

[Eric J in MN]

3. they shouldn't let obviously bogus Hawii polls sway their spending (nt)

nt

[sonicx]

4. oh! the DNC is too

HONOLULU — The Democratic National Committee, concerned that the presidential race has tightened in Hawaii, has bought local television advertisements to help Sen. John Kerry's campaign.
The decision comes after the Advertiser Hawaii Poll and other surveys found that Kerry and President Bush are in a dead heat in Hawaii, a state that has traditionally supported Democrats for president.

"This is an indication that John Kerry and the Democrats are not taking a single vote for granted," said Josh Earnest, a DNC spokesman.

Earnest said he could not describe the content or scope of the ads, but he acknowledged that Democrats had not invested resources in Hawaii before because the state was viewed as safe for Kerry. Two local television executives described the ad buy as significant.

http://www.usatoday.com/news/politicselections/state/hawaii/2004-10-26-democratic-ads_x.htm?POE=NEWISVA

[Quetzal]

5. Here is an article from Hawaii regarding the political ads

Kerry's team will buy ads in Islands

The Democratic National Committee, concerned that the presidential race has tightened in Hawai'i, has purchased local television advertisements to help Sen. John Kerry's campaign.

The decision comes after the Advertiser Hawai'i Poll and other polls found that Kerry and President Bush are in a dead heat in Hawai'i, a state that has traditionally supported Democrats for president.

"This is an indication that John Kerry and the Democrats are not taking a single vote for granted," said Josh Earnest, a DNC spokesman.

Earnest said he could not describe the content or scope of the ads but he acknowledged that Democrats had not invested resources in Hawai'i before because the state was viewed as safe for Kerry. Two local television executives described the ad buy as significant.

more...

Kerry's team will buy ads in Islands

I live in Hawaii and I have not seen ANY Bush Signs here.

Hawaii voters tend to favor incumbents on all levels - county, state, and federal. When Democrats do not show up to vote in large numbers, the Democrats usually win by sizable margin (exception is November 2002 with Lingle). If Kerry wants to blow Shrub to the bottom of the Shitcan, then Democrats here would have to come out in high numbers.

Kerry should also be criticized for not speaking out on the environment. It is an important issue here.

Although Nader received a fairly sizble portion of the vote in 2000, he is not on the ballot this time.

National Democrats that could come to Hawaii: Kucinich & Dean.

Kucinich received 27 percent of the vote in the Democratic primary here. Dean was endorsed by our former Gov. Ben Cayetano and our US Representative Neil Abercrombie.

Kucinich would be most effective on Maui, since he won the island in the primary, and Dean on O'ahu.