Race getting close in Missouri - Kerry within 3 in one poll and 4 in anoth

[unfrigginreal]

Tight presidential race remains, Missouri polls show

Associated Press

Two new polls show Missouri's race for president remains tight less than a week before Election Day.

The focus on this state, once considered up-for-grabs, has shifted in recent weeks, with President Bush's campaign pulling commercials from the air and Democratic Sen. John Kerry yanking commercials and staff from the state.

But polls in Wednesday's editions of The Kansas City Star and the St. Louis Post-Dispatch showed a narrowing Missouri race, though Bush still held an edge over Kerry.

In a telephone poll for The Star and television station KMBC, Bush held a 49 percent lead to 45 percent support for Kerry. A poll, for the Post-Dispatch and TV station KMOV, showed Bush leading 48 percent to 45 percent.

Six percent of respondents in both surveys said they were undecided.

The poll for the Star and KMBC - conducted from Friday to Tuesday - included 553 registered voters who said they were likely to vote. The margin of error was 4.1 percentage points.

The poll for the Post-Dispatch and KMOV involved 800 likely voters, questioned Friday through Sunday. The margin of error was 3.5 percentage points.

http://www.thestate.com/mld/thestate/news/politics/10022976.htm

[bluestateguy]

1. I fear Missouri 2004 will be our Ohio of 2000.

Where the candidate and the DNC has pulled out (save for the idependent groups), but he only loses it by 2 to 4 points.

[jbm]

10. I'd love for Missouri to go blue..

and I'm still hoping, but it will be up to the cities. Our local dems have a list of the voters in our county who voted in the primaries, and so we've been calling the people on that list and asking them to support Kerry and our local dem candidates. Tonight I called an entire town and only found three dems. Course all together I only had 73 responses, but I still hated the odds. Some of the repubs were vicious enough that I put them on my 'call back' list. I doubt I'll actually do it, but I like to pretend that after Kerry wins next tuesday, I'll call back the meanest freepers that I've encountered, and thank them for their support of John Kerry.

Despite my personal experiences, I still have absolute faith that Missouri will go blue! I'm counting on you guys in Kansas City and St Louis!!

[aquart]

2. You-all could use these civil union flyers he's talking about.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x1182343

[nixonwasbetterthanW]

3. Bush is not even hitting 50 in MO ...

... this is turning into a cascade of good poll news for Kerry. Christmas in October. If it's this bad in Missouri, Bush has run out of time to cover his comfortable base of states. Meantime, Kerry can just plug away in purple and red territory.

Lots of whispering about not-yet-released CBS poll showing incredible gains for Kerry in three big battlegrounds. Anyone know anything?

[unfrigginreal]

4. No, I heard the rumor about a nice CBS Florida poll but didn't hear

about the others. Let's hope it's true.

[troublemaker]

5. I hope the Red Sox don't sour MO on JFK

[jbm]

13. maybe I'm disloyal..

but I'm a Missourian rooting for the Sox. A Sox win would be like a huge good karma sign for Kerry or something! We can win the world series next year..this year we gotta win this election!!

[Zorbet55]

19. It's hard to hold a grudge, when

You are getting the ever-living dogshit beat out of you. Uh, the Cards will get started tomorrow night. There's no panic here.

[0007]

27. Naw! I just hope the New England States don't get pissed when

the Cards do to the Red Sox what the Red Sox did to the Yankees.

Kerry will win by a landslide, no doubt about it!!

[ochazuke]

6. We're still here on the ground

Canvassing every weekend, phonebanking day and night. Moveonpac and ACT are active here too.

We're getting ready for a big GOTV on 11.2 here in this state with no early voting this year.

We can pull it out for Kerry with a national groundswell (like we're seeing), but that would mean more for our "downticket" candidates like Nancy Farmer (trying to oust evil Kit Bond from the Senate) than Kerry. If Kerry takes Missouri, he'll also take Iowa, and Wisconsin, and Ohio, and Florida, and New Mexico, and Minnesota....YEAAAHHH (Dean Scream).

Still, some ads from the Media Fund or Moveon.org would be great.

[sonicx]

7. it's a long stot, but I hope Kerry has a good showing

[Zen Democrat]

8. Don't overestimate these spot commercials. MO may go BLUE without ads

Here in Texas the vote will be a lot closer than the polls indicate. The Kerry vote is much stronger than people think. He won't win Texas, but he's doing a heck of a lot better than Gore, and without any Kerry ads. We have four Kerry signs on our block, and two Bush. In 2000, the block was covered in Bush signs.

With the number of national ads on TV, people see enough. And listening to the news, and having family in Iraq, and losing jobs and health insurance, and losing 401-K's and watching the Chimp melt down in front of our very eyes. You don't need to buy ads for that. It's in the fabric of the entire country right now. Bush must go.

Bush is in trouble in lots of states that haven't been targeted by Kerry. We just have to wait and see how this plays out -- but I am feeling like this could be a reverse 1980, with unexpected states turning Blue on election night in a national break for the challenger and a decision before the 10:00 news.

[autorank]

15. Oh, God bless you!!! I'm predicting 2:00AM EDT.

I went to an early movie in 1980 and came out to find, to my shock, that it was all over (real sad day for me). I'd love the * people to have that type of character building experience. Go Texas!

[Thrill]

9. Send Edwards there a couple times

.

[StlMo]

11. GOTV will be absolutely critical.

I have great hope for Missouri.
I expect undecided voters to break heavily for Kerry in Missouri (same as nationwide).
Our base is energized and we have the ability to generate a very large turnout.
Conservative voters here (and nationwide) will be extremely displeased with Bush's flip-flop on gay civil unions; many conservative voters will reconsider their support for Bush.
Missouri has a great chance to help elect Kerry.

[missouri dem]

28. The Kerry Campaign has not given up on Missouri.

They have moved staff back into the state and we have a great ground campaign. We have doubled the number of phones at our phone bank and are running it 12 hours a day. We will deliver every Democrat to the polls. Our polling has shown that since the debates there has been a big shift from * to undecided and last week the undecideds started breaking to Kerry. If K.C. and St Louis come through we will win Missouri.

[Awsi Dooger]

12. That makes perfect sense

Missouri figures about 3-4 points more GOP than the national average, even if you concede the newly energized wave of rural voters. If Kerry is tied nationally, he should be within 3 or 4 in Missouri.

This is very similar to Ohio in 2000, which also was 3-4 points more Republican trending than the nation but we let go early. I guess Kerry thinks he can't win Missouri without taking the nation by enough of a margin that Missouri doesn't matter anyway, i.e. the other close states will already put him over.

I don't like to assume defeat when you're within several points. Missouri was never unlikely enough to forfeit. Likewise Arkansas. Colorado, IMO, is more of a reach than either.

[LSK]

14. so in reality hes up 7.....

[Wapsie B]

16. or 10.

n/t

[Zorbet55]

17. That just means that Kerry is ahead by 4 in MO. Great.

[MidwestMomma]

18. Call the St Louis campaign office and volunteer for election day

Spoke with a very nice person today. They are trying to mobilize massive number of voters on election day. They need door-to-door canvassers and phone bankers for election day and they still need volunteers. He said people should not give up on Missouri.

To volunteer in St Louis call 314-645-1449. You'll be glad you did.

[gardenia]

32. Volunteer MO 314-645-1449--I'm there. Coming from all States!!!!!!!!

I'm there ALOT. We can do it with your help!!!! It's an incredible infusion of energy there. People calling from all over the country everyday to come and help. Flying in from Alaska-CA-Wyoming-Texas, etc.

IT'S ALL ABOUT GETTING OUT THE VOTE NOW. We've done the other identification work. WE NEED PEOPLE TO DO PHONE BANKS, RIDE PEOPLE TO THE POLLS, CANVASS.............DON'T MISS THE OPPORTUNITY TO MAKE A DIFFERENCE!!!!!!!!! IT'S THAT CLOSE.

[DeepModem Mom]

20. Kick!

[montana500]

21. Kerry isn't giving up on MO

I know a few hundered workers alone being bussed down to Missouri to GOTV.

shhhhhhh!!

[unfrigginreal]

22. Good Morning kick

:kick:

[gavodotcom]

23. MO, AR, MI, WI will go blue.

The article brings up newspapers from Kansas City and St. Louis, because those two cities are going to be what do it for Kerry in MO.

"Big Dawg" gives us Arkansas if he's on TV every day.

Iowa's blue, has NEVER gone over 50% Bush all year, same with Minnesota, who I think is safer than Iowa.

Wisconsin's the wild card (anyone have data on women there?), but Kerry's spending more time there, with, I read, The Boss.

I'm predicting a '92 landslide--I still don't think we go 2/2 with OH and FL due to thievery--but I'll be shocked if we don't get those 4 states.

[illuminaughty]

24. We are on the ground but still need info and help

As you've seen on a few threads, there is chaos as to where to vote.
It is not on your regis. card always.

I'm with MoveOn PAC and am a precinct leader, but with no team under me. The people in charge are great, it's just that it's overwhelming and we still have precincts with no reps.

I'm working an inner city, largely African American precinct, with 700 maybe 1000 on potential voter list.

I have 100 men and women voters from one of the city Missions. Their address is the Mission and I have a real fear of them having problems. Especially after reading other threads concerning the intimidation going on in other urban areas. I am thinking of renting a van to get these people to the polls as they all come to the Mission address around the same time each day.
Remember, here in Missouri, we only have one day of voting and people were turned away in 2000. I can't imagine how this will not have glitches since we have so many more turning out this year. We'd double check to make sure they are registered but that on line service on the BOE is under construction. How convenient.

I've done research on voter rights but we anticipate a battle. Any of you savvy on this subject or can volunteer, please, we'd love to hear from you.

[gardenia]

33. Call St. Louis MO Office for Dems 314-645-1449 Should have expertise

I do know they have signed up alot of folks to ride people to the polls and you can vote earlier than Nov.2 if going to be out of the county etc. ......Maybe you can get them in this week

[0007]

25. Didn't Kerry pull out of Missouri?

[unfrigginreal]

26. He did

I think that so many states are getting tight now that there are too many to be in all of them. He pulled out of these states that are now back in play too - WV, Va, Ark. In a way it's the kind of 'bad news' that you like to get.

[missouri dem]

30. The Kerry campaign has never completly pulled out.

They have in place one of their best ground campaigns here. They did move staff out to help in Ohio but last week they brought in replacements. We will GOTV record numbers of voters and you can take it to the bank.

[gardenia]

34. Yes, but it is still close....volunteers will make all the difference

[uconnyc]

29. MO - MI

The way we look at MO is how Repubs probably are looking at MI.

I'm pissed JFK gave up on some states early like Arkansas, VA, AZ, etc. Gore strategy all over again.

[goodboy]

31. I wish he hadn't pulled his ads...nt