Is the assault on Fallujah and capture of Al Zarqawi the october surprise?

[pabloseb]

Article in the NYT: http://www.nytimes.com/2004/10/27/international/middleeast/27marines.html?hp

[bluestateguy]

1. I tend to think so.

Friday is a slow news day. Many folks don't watch the news. Plus you need a few days for a rally effect to materialize. A Monday event would not do much good. So, I expect to see Abu Musab Zarqawi "found" on Thursday to get maximum benefit.

[aquart]

2. Why? Are you surprised?

[izzie]

6. I have to look at it in two ways.

I do think Bush thinks he can ride in on a victory but his war has been going so bad I am not sure he can get one. This running a war from the WH never seems to work. Johnson. Nixon both seemed to try it. Bush seems to like to be a cheerleader to the service and likes those uniforms but that make him no general. From what you read with these people who have been mixing with the Iraq people, these people know more what is going on than our army does.They may take the city of bombed out building but the terrorist seem to just go up in smoke so to speak to turn up someplace else another day.

[jfern]

3. Avoiding attacking suspected terrorist mastermind

By Jim Miklaszewski

But NBC News has learned that long before the war the Bush administration had several chances to wipe out his terrorist operation and perhaps kill Zarqawi himself — but never pulled the trigger.

In June 2002, U.S. officials say intelligence had revealed that Zarqawi and members of al-Qaida had set up a weapons lab at Kirma, in northern Iraq, producing deadly ricin and cyanide.

The Pentagon quickly drafted plans to attack the camp with cruise missiles and airstrikes and sent it to the White House, where, according to U.S. government sources, the plan was debated to death in the National Security Council.

“Here we had targets, we had opportunities, we had a country willing to support casualties, or risk casualties after 9/11 and we still didn’t do it,” said Michael O’Hanlon, military analyst with the Brookings Institution.

Four months later, intelligence showed Zarqawi was planning to use ricin in terrorist attacks in Europe.

The Pentagon drew up a second strike plan, and the White House again killed it. By then the administration had set its course for war with Iraq.

“People were more obsessed with developing the coalition to overthrow Saddam than to execute the president’s policy of preemption against terrorists,” according to terrorism expert and former National Security Council member Roger Cressey. ...

Military officials insist their case for attacking Zarqawi’s operation was airtight, but the administration feared destroying the terrorist camp in Iraq could undercut its case for war against Saddam.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/4431601/

[pabloseb]

4. I am NOT surprised... but many voters will be

If voters were informed and educated, we wouldn't have the close race we have. If they take over Fallujah, some people will be impressed. And if they capture or kill Al Zarqawi (or they claim they do), that could tip the election... nevermind that they didn't give sh*t about Al Zarqawi before.

[PermanentRevolution]

5. Al Zarqawi is not bin Laden

His capture is a runner-up at best. How many voters feel the same visceral hatred of Zarqawi as they do for bin Laden? He's just another henchmen of the guy Bush let get away.

[gavodotcom]

7. This is post-election.

Or we wouldn't have waited.

EDIT: Plus, I would say, that it would take more than 5 days to invade a city of 250,000 and find the knife-wielding boogeyman. No way there's good news out of Fallujah before the election, just a big GI body count that doesn't get better here with the arrest of a terrorist. This is definitely one of those no-win situations, made impossibly worse by the political dimension.

If they wanted Zarqawi for the trophy, they wouldn't have waited to soften up the city into the week before the election.