Zogby - Kerry 47% Bush 48%

[unfrigginreal]

Reuters Poll: Bush Leads Kerry by 1 Point
Wed Oct 27, 2004 07:02 AM ET

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - President Bush leads Democratic rival John Kerry by 1 point with six days left in a tight race for the White House, according to a Reuters/Zogby poll released on Wednesday.

Bush led Kerry 48-47 percent in the latest three-day national tracking poll, as the Massachusetts senator gained 2 points on Bush in a day. Bush led Kerry 49-46 percent on Tuesday.

Bush's lead was well within the poll's margin of error, leaving the White House rivals in a statistical dead heat heading into the stretch run.

"Today was a big day for Kerry," pollster John Zogby said.

Kerry has consolidated his base support just as Bush did early in the race, taking a 2-to-1 lead among Hispanics, 90 percent of blacks, 84 percent of Democrats, 55 percent of union voters and 65 percent of singles.

Only 4 percent of likely voters remain undecided.

http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=topNews&storyID=6626332

[nixonwasbetterthanW]

1. which means that Kerry had a good Tuesday? n/t

[jezebel]

3. He was probably at least tied. This line ticks me off "84 percent of

Democrats"
Why in the heck are 16% of Democrats voting for Bush?

[secular_warrior]

10. old conservative Dems who haven't switched their registration

to Repubican, but for all intents and purposes are Republicans.

[lancdem]

24. 16 percent of Dems aren't voting for Bush

You're not accounting for undecided Dems, which I'm guessing is about 6 percent. I'm pretty sure Kerry will lose fewer Dems to Bush than Gore did in 2000 (12 percent).

[shawmut]

2. It's now official - all polls are breaking for Kerry

Zogby was the only hold out.

[mzmolly]

4. Yeah!

:toast:

[Dalvis]

5. Yesterday's sample

The most likely scenario in yesterday's sample is roughly Bush-47, Kerry-46. A better day for Kerry than the day before, but the real reason for the rise is that Saturday's very pro-Bush sample rolled off. Nevertheless, things are headed in the right direction.

[nixonwasbetterthanW]

11. i think they were within a point of each other yesterday

Bush got 50 and Kerry got 43 in Saturday-only polling.

Yesterday's three-day Z #'s, which included Saturday plus Sunday and Monday, were Bush 49, Kerry 46. That's approximately 147 total for Bush for three days, and 138 for Kerry. If we extrapolate, that means the Sunday-Monday totals for each were 147-50, or 97, for Bush, and 138-43, or 95, for Kerry. To get to this morning's Bush 48, Kerry 47, you'd have at most 48 (97+48=145 -- 145/3=48.3) for Bush and 47 (95+46=141 -- 141/3=47) for Kerry.

[lancdem]

25. I was calculating that, too, since Bush apparently was up 7 on Saturday

But how would a 1-point margin for Bush be a big day for Kerry, as Zogby called it? Why wouldn't he just say Bush's outlier day rolled off the sample? :shrug:

[DemocratSinceBirth]

6. Shoot Me....

Yesterday Zogby implied that the election was over by inferring Bush was ahead 49-46 and there weren't enough undecideds left to swing the race toward Kerry...


The "big day" shit was his spin on Dean's Sunday performance in the weekend before the New Hampshire primary where he got trounced...


I don't question Zogby's numbers as much as I question his analysis of day to day numbers...

Yesterday based on a couple of days of numbers Zogby was saying Kerry was losing women , young people, and indys...

Do you really believe this changed in one day?

Don't rely on me .... Ask any statistician.... Zogby is attaching significance to variance within the margin of error or noise....

The good thing about the poll is all the dunderheads in the media will focus on is the headline numbers which is good for us....

[unfrigginreal]

7. "The good thing about the poll is all the dunderheads in the media will

focus on is the headline numbers"

Yep

[Tandalayo_Scheisskopf]

8. I was talking to...

A VERY knowledgable Democrat on Sunday night. Very clued-in. How knowledgable and clued-in?

Heh. You could not buy your way into his sources.

He said that the amount of weighting in all the national public polls is stupifying. That said, the private internal polls are weighting right more but also sliding back to correct weighting upon occasion, just to see whassup.

No matter.

Even with the weighting games, guess who wins? ;-)

[unfrigginreal]

9. Thank you for that!

We've all suspected as much about the weighting in the polls but it's great to hear that confirmation. :yourock:

[Doosh]

12. it's a trend folks!

Zogby was just a little late to pick up on it.

[bushwakker]

13. good to see - zogby was spot on in 2000

[johnnyrocket]

14. These polls are ridiculous...is Kerry going to break out or what??!?!

It seems mathematically impossible that Kerry never leads Bush in these polls ripe with error and sampling quirks.

[pabloseb]

15. Kerry is leading lately...

The day before yesterday Kerry was 2 up in Rasmussen, yesterday Kerry led by 2 in WaPo. Kerry has lead Zogby before as well, and hopefully he'll lead again soon.

[in_cog_ni_to]

16. I did a Zogby Poll yesterday. Is this the result of THAT poll?

Or not?

[unfrigginreal]

19. It could be if you were polled by phone

It wouldn't be if it was an online poll.

[in_cog_ni_to]

21. Thanks. It was his online poll. n/t

[City Lights]

17. I expected today's Zogby numbers to show a closer race because

chimpy's big day (Saturday) was no longer in the mix. Now he says it's because Kerry had a good day.

[unfrigginreal]

18. Some comments from Zogby(subscription) posted at Kos

the $$$ Zogby (none / 0)

Pollster John Zogby: "Today was a big day for Kerry, with a 5- point lead in the single day of polling. Kerry has managed to consolidate a big chunk of his base just as Bush has done on his own behalf. Kerry leads 2 to 1 among Hispanics; he is getting 90% of African Americans; 84% of Democrats; 55% of union voters; 65% of singles; and well over 50% of all voters earning under $50K.

"But remarkably the two candidates are tied among men and women and the race is very close among the youngest voters, and Catholics. Kerry leads 50%-40% among new voters and the candidates are in a dead heat among those who have already voted."

"Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx
by DemFromCT on Wed Oct 27th, 2004 at 12:38:53 GMT

[DemocratSinceBirth]

22. That Statement Is Inherently Contradictory...

How can you be tied among men and women and be leading by five percent in one day of polling?


Even given the fact that women vote in slightly higher numbers and there are more voting age women than men...

[lancdem]

26. And if Bush was up 7 on Saturday

and Kerry was up 5 Tuesday, then Kerry should've gained 4 points in one day, not 2. This is confusing.

[DCal]

27. I think the demographics are for all 3 days of polling

So, since Bush and Kerry are essentially tied (48-47) it is possible for them to be tied among men and women. It doesn't seem plausible that there is no gender gap at all, though.

[mvd]

23. If Kerry had a 5-point lead, then..

why isn't the rolling average better? Maybe someone can explain.

[Fluffdaddy]

20. This is killing me