My friend is working for MoveON calling people and needs help debunking

[ChavezSpeakstheTruth]

He has volunteered to call people and encourage them to vote Kerry. He needs help with his arguments. First point of order:

Why is Bush responsible for high oil prices?

[elehhhhna]

1. it's the War, silly. Speculators are jacking the prices because

they're concerned about the supply-chain (from blown-up oilfields & pipelines)plus transportation issues. AND we're still fillinn gour oil reserve salt-domes which keeps the price higher. i think. Plus the oil co's can gouge--they're pals with Cheney so no oversight there...

[ProfessorGAC]

3. All Correct, Plus. . .

. . .there is an actual supply & demand issue here. Bush specifically told americans to go about their normal lives. No rationing, no self-restraint on fuel, nothing. Demand: Unchanged.

Then, by invading Iraq, and ending oil for food (conflicts of interest, cheating, and all), that oil flow into the world supply went away. Just like that. Now, the countries who were getting that oil are getting it from the global commodity supply. Supply: Reduced

Same Demand:Lesser Supply = Higher Prices.

By invading Iraq and cutting off France, Germany, and Russia from Iraqi oil, that jumped prices. Then, not being able to repair the infrastructure damage fast enough resulted in a longer term supply shortage. This has futures prices shifted up and up.

Lastly, remember this is a compounding problem. Two 10% increases don't add up to 20%. They add up to 21%. Two 12% increases (closer to this oil situation) add up to 25.44%. Two major planning and leadership blunders result in huge increases.
The Professor

[blondeatlast]

8. It makes me ill that we weren't asked to ration.

I've cut back as much as possible because gas costs so much, but I think others would if it aided the war effort.

[ProfessorGAC]

18. Alas, Li'l Georgie Insisted on NO CHANGES

What an idiot!
The Professor

[blondeatlast]

7. Listen to AAR for a while until you hear the commercial for "Options"

trading. That tells you everything elehhhhna is talking about.

To paraphrase:
"Invest in this high risk venture because you'll make a mint if Bush is re-elected. You cannot factor in current news because if Bush gets pink-slipped, you'll lose your shirt."

Obviously I've taken liberties, but seriously, if you hear the commercial, the subtext is pretty muuch there.

[Trajan]

2. Because he is making no effort to reduce it ....

Unlike his immediate predessessors, who have released oil from our own strategic reserves SPECIFICALLY for the purpose of reducing price by increasing supply ....

Secondly: there is strong evidence to conclude that Bush AND Cheney colluded with Enron during the 'electricity crisis' in the West, and stood by while Enron RAPED american citizens to the tune of billions, and actually appreaed to have AIDED the theft by refusing to step in ....

When Oil price goes up ? ... George's friends make trillions of dollars ..... Easy .... they like it that way ...

[quisp]

4. and what he said in 2000

that if he was president when oil prices went up he would pick up the phone and call Saudi Arabia and tell them to open up the spigots.

But if you look at the profits that oil companies are posting he will never do that.

[tech3149]

5. First point

US policy and practices (and support of NAFTA) aggravate Chavez causing higher royalties on oil. Conflict in Iraq disrupting Iraqi oil flow.
Increased tensions from Iraq cause all OPEC nations to value their resources. Administration chose to maintain and increase Strategic Oil Reserve at reduced worldwide output and higher prices.

In reality these are only talking points. It would be foolish to say that bush* directly affected oil prices.

Morning Chavez

[ChavezSpeakstheTruth]

6. Hey - I admire Chavez for stickin' it to the US

but you did say "US policy and practices" - who is at the top of THAT food chain?

[BiggJawn]

9. You forgot China.

China is trying to take away our "spot" as biggest consumer.

Reduced supplies going to market. Rumsferatu never DREAMED that Saddam's oil industry was in such bad shape, so projected production from Iraq hasn't come to fruit.

Increased demand. China's using more, we weren't told to tighten our belts, even though I heard 3 people singin' the blues last week about leaving their UAV's parked because they can't afford to feed 'em.

And....When you have sympathetic people in high places, who's gonna do anything to you if you slam 15" between the ass-cheeks of Murka without lube?

[Bad Thoughts]

10. War took oil off market

Iraq produced 2 million barrels of oil per day. They were not destined for the US, but they lowered the global price for oil, especially because it was given in exchange for goods rather than capital. Now the flow of oil is less than 10% of what is was, the infrastructure is damaged due to war and terrorism, and we must pay for that oil with cash.

[AP]

11. One reason is because he's causing chaos in the ME intentionally. Another

is because he decided to top up the strategic federal reserves when oil was at a really high price.

[Paradise]

12. 100 Facts and 1 Opinion!

http://www.thenation.com/doc.mhtml?i=20041108&s=facts

[NJmaverick]

13. that is an easy one

bush stopped any work on alterantive energy sources like wind or solar.

Cheney encouraged energy wasting, but saying conservation is not important.

bush did NOTHING to reduce our dependence on foreign oil. Like force Auto Manufactures to improve gas milage.

[DebinTx]

14. Iraq is also IMPORTING oil now

since their pipelines are being sabbotaged daily. More demand.

[snippy]

15. Another major factor is Bush's weak dollar policy.

Oil is priced in dollars in the world oil market and Bush has advocated a weaker dollar for the last 3 years.

The article I read on the impact of the weaker dollar on oil prices used Mexico as an example. When oil was $30 a barrel the US dollar was worth around 15 pesos, so when Mexico sold a barrel of oil for $30 it received 450 pesos after the currency conversion. At the time the article was written the dollar had weakened to be worth around 11 pesos, so in order to receive 450 pesos Mexico had to get over $40 a barrel for its oil.

I do not know what the peso is worth today in dollar terms but that information is readily available on one of the internets.

[sofa king]

16. De-stabilizing governments worldwide might have a lot to do with it.

The Iraqi oil pipelines are being attacked regularly, making it an unreliable source of supply. Unreliability increases oil costs.

The http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/1925161.stm">failed overthrow of Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez might have something to do with it. The festering scandal of http://axisoflogic.com/artman/publish/article_13024.shtml">US government support of Chavez's overthrowers probably doesn't help. Perversely, had the http://iri.org/countries.asp?id=1510190109">International Republican Institute succeeded in carrying off the Venezuelan coup as they did in Haiti (with the help of USAID money), the price of oil may have dropped. As it is, now that it is known that Chavez is a marked man by the US, Venezuelan output isn't to be trusted, either.

Allegations of widespread bribery by Vice President Dick Cheney's Halliburton in http://uslaboragainstwar.org/article.php?id=6743">Nigeria may also have something to do with the Nigerian strike which is blamed for the most recent price spike. Nigeria pumps about 2.5 million barrels a day, and sends most of it straight to the U.S. Did I mention that Nigerians are striking because of high fuel prices in Nigeria?

And if you thought all of the above was whacky paranoid conspiratorial bullshit, here's one I can't cite. A guy I know inherited a large number of domestic oil wells. This year he hit it big, because the price per barrel finally hit the magic number which makes extraction profitable again. Where are his oil wells?

Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia.

[noamnety]

17. oil profits are going up because of the war

"Crucial to the surge in profits was the rising global price of oil, which averaged record highs across the three-month period, buoyed by fears of a supply gap due to the war in Iraq."
http://www.guardian.co.uk/oil/story/0,11319,947859,00.html

"STRONG oil prices because of the Iraq war helped BP to push up profits by 42 per cent in the second quarter to $3.12 billion (£1.95 billion). ... The oil companies have been producing some of the largest quarterly profits on record by publicly traded firms, helped by prices that have soared on the back of the war in Iraq and supply disruptions in Venezuela."
http://www.bpamoco.org.uk/company/03-07-30tim.htm


ExxonMobil profits since the war started have shot up (scroll down for graph):
http://quote.morningstar.com/Quote.html?Ticker=XOM&TimeFrame=Y5

ChevronTexaco profits since the war started have shot up (scroll down for graph):
http://quote.morningstar.com/Quote.html?Ticker=CVX&TimeFrame=Y5