It's All About Turnout (My Election Prediction)

[louis c]

I've been following all the polls closely. I've been working one day a week in NH.

I was privileged to sit in a meeting with five labor lawyers last week who are donating their time to ensure fair voting, and working for Kerry.

I've talked with some low-level Kerry campaign staff, as well as some pretty important labor leaders. That's my background, here's my prediction.

If the turnout is below 104 million voters, which was the turnout in 2000, Bush wins.

If the turnout is between 104 million voters and 110 million voters, we have a toss-up. The extra 6 million voters above 104 million will break evenly.

As the turnout exceeds 110 million, Kerry's chances improve. For every 3 million voters above 110 million that vote, Kerry will get 2 million.

So, at 113 million, Kerry wins by a point. At 116 million, it's Kerry by 2 points. At 119 million, Kerry by 3.

My prediction is 120 million voters, Kerry by 3.

[Jersey Devil]

1. What % total turnout would 113 M be?

if you have that info

[bryant69]

2. I don't kow if i buy your math, but I do agree with the principle

That's why all the polls are only vaguely accurate--they all ignore new voters. Whom I thik will go for Senator Kerry in a huge way.

Bryant
Check it out --> http://politicalcomment.blogspot.com

[auburngrad82]

3. We've already had over 400 thousand votes cast in NC

It beat the previous record of 396 thousand and we still have 5 days to go.

I voted Saturday and the turnout was heavy in a rural republican county. What encouraged me about my experience there was that the black vote was very heavy in that county. I'm encouraged. I don't see us winning the county but with the urban areas in NC (Charlotte, Raleigh, Greensboro) we may actually have a shot at the state.

[louis c]

4. kick