Zogby: Bush 48, Kerry 47

[DCal]

And Kerry led by 5 points in one-day polling.

[Pirate Smile]

1. Last nights polling?

[colonel odis]

2. doesn't zogby use polling methods frowned on by the research community?

like calling only listed phone numbers, as opposed to adding digits to get a more random sample?

[TomClash]

7. He missed the 2000 election by 1/10 of a point

Everybody else missed by several points.

[colonel odis]

9. that, to me, is the irony of it. he was on the money in 2000,

yet aren't his methods counter to those generally used by other pollsters? that was my question.

[robbedvoter]

15. Only after being exposed by the Village Voice!

Zogby stopped cheating for bush ONLY after the exposee in October - and everyone gives him credit for that! Unf*ingbelievable!

[DCal]

3. Yes, Kerry up 5 in polling that was done on Tuesday

[Pirate Smile]

5. I checked. Here is the blurb from Zogby.

Pollster John Zogby: "Today was a big day for Kerry, with a 5 point lead in the single day of polling. Kerry has managed to consolidate a big chunk of his base just as Bush has done on his own behalf. Kerry leads 2 to 1 among Hispanics; he is getting 90% of African Americans; 84% of Democrats; 55% of union voters; 65% of singles; and well over 50% of all voters earning under $50K.

[fugop]

8. As everyone here has been saying ...

The Dems are indeed coming home. At long last.

[Hamlette]

11. zogby does use methods frowned on by other pollsters, he was way off in

2002, although he was right on in 2000.

I wanna know what's up with 16% of the dems and 45% of union voters?

Are they voting on abortion?

[Pirate Smile]

17. Union voters is probably male gun owners and the 16% of dems is

probably some married women (I'm sorry to say). Hopefully those demographics change some but there isn't much time. Kerry is getting more single men then usual so that is good news.

[Kahuna]

4. Caramba!! Mothers! Hide your sons! It's "Ashcroft time."

It's time to announce that a major terrorist cell has been apprehended in the good ol' USA. :scared:

[pbg]

16. It's too late.

Anything this close to the election won't have the impact--and will be perceived as a desperate political ploy even by the undecideds.

The October Surprise has already been delivered--a great steaming pile of qaqaa--and they're going down.

Kerry in a landslide.

[tnlefty]

6. About 10 mins. ago I completed a new Zogby poll and it had 2 new

questions that I hadn't seen on their other surveys:

Not eligible to vote in 2000? and Did you register to vote within the past 6 months?

Seems as though they are trying to find some new voters.

[sonicx]

10. Kerry might lead tommorrow- Bush had a 7 point lead Sat one-day

and that dropped off to pull the race to within one. tommorrow, Sun one-day will drop off and i think there was Bush lead there as well.

So, If Kerry ties in today's one-day, it's:

tied day(WEDS) + 3 point bush day(MON) + 5 Point Kerry day(TUES)

[Roland99]

12. See...told you all...Polls DON'T MATTER NOW

The ups/downs are going to drive you all nuts if you obsess over them.



GET

OUT

THE

VOTE!!

[montana500]

13. guns nm

nm

[KharmaTrain]

14. Perspective Here...Don't Confuse The Numbers

I took the Zogby online last night...I expect we'll see those results over the weekend or Monday. I've always trusted Zogby to be the most efficient in who they sample and how they're sampled...and Zogby still sticks by his prediction of a Kerry victory.

Remember, these are "Beauty Pagent" numbers...that come from all over and include respondents from states that have no impact in this election (including my own). Battleground polls are the ones to watch and those keep trending stronger and stronger Kerry. Zogby and most other pollsters see this, too.

Besides the problems already discussed about cellphones and under-sampling, even Rove admits there's a 4% bias in favor of Bunnypants in most major polls, so taking his own basis into account, Kerry has a 4 point lead...just on the edge of the MOE...not good news in Roveland.

The real interesting stat I am fascinated with is how stagnant Bunnypants numbers are in most polls now. His numbers have been stuck in the 44-47 or so range for the past three weeks and the state numbers in the battlegrounds reflect this as well. Take into account that 4% Rove builds in and the manchild is actually hovering around 40%-45%...and that's a recipe for losing in any political playbook.

[cubsfan forever]

19. Thoughtful and incisive! n/t

Professor 2

[undercover_brother]

18. Bill Clinton and Philly, Oh Yeah!