Republican Pollster: bush is losing by 5% in battleground states.

[milkyway]

ALEXANDRIA, VA – Fabrizio, McLaughlin & Associates (FMA), a Republican polling and strategic consulting firm based in Alexandria, VA, has just completed their third likely voter survey with interviewsconducted ONLY in the remaining 12 battleground states.*

In the three-way Presidential ballot, the race is dead tied in these crucial battleground states with BOTH President Bush and Sen. Kerry receiving 47% of the vote. Ralph Nader receives 1.6% while just 4% of the battleground state likely voters are undecided.

However, as the data below illustrates, when the data is weighted to reflect minority turnout based on the 2000 exit polls, Sen. Kerry leads by 3.5% and if minority turnout is weighted to census levels Sen. Kerry’s lead expands to 5.2%.

“It is clear that minority turnout is a wildcard in this race and represents a huge upside for Sen. Kerry and a considerable challenge for the President’s campaign. If one assumes minority turnout exceeds their 2000 election levels, then it appears a number of these states would tip to Sen. Kerry,” Fabrizio
concluded.

http://fabmac.com/releases.html

__________

http://fabmac.com/FMA-2004-10-27-Battleground-Ballot.pdf (warning: the pdf crashed Kevin Drum's computer; it was fine on my Mac)

Here's Kevin Drum's comments on this at Washington Monthly:

THE MINORITY VOTE....Hmmm. Republican pollster Tony Fabrizio has just finished a survey of 12 battleground states and finds Bush and Kerry tied with 47% of the vote apiece. But when he weights for minority turnout based on the 2000 exit polls, Kerry is ahead 49.2%-45.7%. And when he further updates the weighting to take into account the most recent census results, Kerry is ahead 49.9%-44.7%.

As Fabrizio blandly puts it, "It is clear that minority turnout is a wildcard in this race and represents a huge upside for Sen. Kerry and a considerable challenge for the President's campaign." More accurately, if Fabrizio is right — that Kerry is ahead by 5% overall in the battleground states — Kerry is a sure winner on November 2.

Suddenly the Bush campaign's obsession with challenging voters in minority neighborhoods makes a lot of sense, doesn't it? Their own internal polling is probably telling the same thing that Fabrizio's poll says: unless they somehow manage to keep the minority vote down, they're doomed.

NOTE: The press release with the poll results is here. However, it's a PDF file that blew up my computer when I tried to open it. I eventually had to download it to my hard drive and reboot my PC in order to read it. Fair warning.

http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/archives/individual/2004_10/005002.php

[dave123williams]

1. I don't care if it's hailing canned hams on Tuesday, I'm votin'.

[The Magistrate]

3. Well Said, Mr. Williams!

Many thanks for the chuckle, Sir, and congratulations on the sentiment!

"LET'S GO GET THOSE BUSH BASTARDS!"

[dave123williams]

7. My pleasure...it's actually a very old Letterman joke, but applicable here

Credit where credit is due; responsibility and accountability for actions taken. It's something the Bushies just don't get.

[Jackpine Radical]

6. Well, I guess that wouldn't be kosher weather.

[pdx_prog]

12. bwahahahaa.....

[semillama]

2. very interesting...

if you take that document at face value, plug in the battlegroudn states as all going for Kerry, and let the LA Times electoral college interactive map use the first choices for the rest: Kerry 309, Bush 229.

Let's hope that guy is right on the ball!

[kostya]

4. Yeah, and I trust Fabrizio implicitly.... If this kind of crap

lets one person off the hook to get to their polling station or mail in their ballot because they think Kerry has it in the bag, THINK AGAIN! Everyone has to GOTV, GOTV, GOTV like hell this time around, period, end of story. We not only have to win it, but we have to win it big, because if RoveCo sees even a hint of daylight in the final results they will fight until the last dog dies in court to overturn (read steal) the election. Bet your bottom dollar on it!!

- K

:bounce:

[DemocracyInaction]

5. I'm sure it will all be evened out when the republicans turn every

attack dog at their disposal on the minority communities. I hope the DNC, leaders of the minority communities, NAACP, etc. flood these communities on and around election day to not only whip them up but to tell them to march as a mass to the polls to demand their rights....and I sure hope they have the polls blanketed with lawyers, etc. so these scumbags of humanity who hate democracy and then tell us we invade places like Iraq in order to "bring democracy to the people" are stopped dead in their evil, stinking tracks. Power to the PEOPLE!!!!

[Supersedeas]

8. So how receptive are minorities to 4 more years of *

We shall see

[milkyway]

9. kick. Repugs know they're toast if they don't suppress the minority vote.

[Kber]

10. and minorities know we are toast if they do.

[GOPBasher]

11. Turn out the lights. We win on Tuesday.

:toast:

[Perky]

13. Yep Game over!

Weighting the numbers make a huge difference... additionall th 5% undecided witll break 3/2 for the challenger.


BallGame!!

[milkyway]

14. and NONE of the polls take into account the fired up Dem turnout this year

Even this poll bases turnout assumptions on 2000; but we'll going to give them a real beating on turnout this year.

KERRY IN A LANDSLIDE. FIVE MORE DAYS.

[Awsi Dooger]

15. Finally! Underestimated minority support and not cell phones

IMO, the unpolled and underestimated minority vote is much more responsible for the polls being skewed toward Republicans in 2000 and 2004 than any intentional polling bias, or stuff like cell phone usage or new registrations. However, I think this firm is stretching it when trying to project all the way toward the 2004 census levels. I considered that six months ago but rejected it, since I doubt those groups will turn out in full percentage of their numbers. Especially since many of them are young and low income, the groups least likely to vote.

The weighting to reflect 2000 minority vote levels is an idea I utilize within my own Excel election model, when looking at best available data from reliable polls. It accounts for Kerry's projected small advantage at this time, when you also factor in the likely track of undecideds.

But you need a much more robust and better balanced sample than this to project swing states. The hispanic population of New Mexico, for example, is not exactly equivalent to that of Pennsylvania. Among 800 respondents, this survey admits to 89.5% white, 4.3% black and 1.9% hispanic. That breaks down to 714 whites, 34 blacks and 15 hispanics.

So we're estimating the entire black and hispanic vote throughout the swing states via a total of 49 people. Okay.

[Awsi Dooger]

16. This was just mentioned by Paul Begala on Crossfire

Much more relevancy than doctored ads or stupid pitchers

[bush equals idiot]

17. They had a Black radio station

in Toledo on CSpan last night. One guy called and said they have organized 30,000 Blacks that can't wait for November 2nd.

He said we'll stand out in the rain, they can try to stop us with tanks...but we votin'.

[ciaobox]

18. Megamoshkick!

Kerry Landslide!

[yardwork]

19. kick

[foo_bar]

21. I think South Dakota would flip before Georgia

[KurtNYC]

20. Kickity Kick

Lickity split

[Awsi Dooger]

22. Kick

Soccer style