Fact or fiction? NJ, PA AND MI now too close too call?

[jerryster]

Yeah yeah, it was on CNN and it was Bill Schneider. Still, I see Bush is in MI and he hasn't been there in weeks. He has to keep going to PA as he doesn't want to make the same mistake Gore did with OH in 2000. But NJ? Anyone seen ANY tracking numbers that support NJ and MI being back in play?

[geek tragedy]

1. FICTION!

Bush is the incumbent--he's not going to add suppporters at this point.

[shawmut]

2. Bush is polling in the middle 40's in both GOP polls that show him "close"

'nuff said.



edit: meant middle, not low.

[michigandem2]

3. Michigan to me...

is not too close to call

here is what I found on Real clear politics...

Michigan ( 17 Electoral Votes)
>>Results from 2000 Election: Bush 46.1, Gore 51.3, Nader 2.0 (Gore +5.2)
Poll | Date Sample MoE Bush Kerry Nader Spread
RCP Average | 10/15 - 10/26 - - 44.5 48.7 1.0 Kerry +4.2
Zogby | 10/23-10/26 601 LV 4.1 44 49 - Kerry +5
Detroit News | 10/20-21, 25 601 LV 4.0 44 45 1 Kerry +1
Rasmussen | 10/17-10/23 561 LV 5.0 46 51 - Kerry +5
EPIC/MRA | 10/18-10/21 610 LV 4.0 43 49 1 Kerry +6
Survey USA | 10/18-10/20 668 LV 3.9 44 51 - Kerry +7
Mason-Dixon | 10/15-10/18 625 LV 4.0 46 47 - Kerry +1
All Michigan Polls | Nader: ON the Ballot

[UrbScotty]

10. For me, that's a little too close for comfort. (nt)

[Goldmund]

4. Yes -- NJ and MI:

New Jersey: Quinnipiac (852 LV | 10/21-10/25): Bush 46, Kerry 46, Nader 2

Michigan: Detroit News (600 LV | 10/20, 21, 25): Kerry 45, Bush 44, Nader 1

I'm not too worried. Kerry has a momentum like I've never seen.

[michigandem2]

7. there are two polls..

that have him up by one..the rest are a lot larger..

[fujiyama]

12. The Mitchel poll

is GOOD news. That same poll had Kerry down by 5 or something last week...and it was the only poll to show that being the case. Mitchell and The Detroit News are both conservative organizations.

That means Kerry is probably up 7 points in this state. Bush is NOT winning it.

NJ is not a worry. Q Pac polls show things closer than they are. The other polls show Kerry up by 7-9 points...My guess, he'll win it by low double digits.

PA is leaning Kerry's way. MN is too close for comfort, but I think he'll pull it off in the end.

WI, IA, NM, NV, FL, OH, and maybe even AR are way too close to call.

[Doosh]

5. Pure fiction

Bogus, right leaning Quinnipiac showed a 46-46 race in NJ, in previous weeks they put out polls that showed bush only down 4 and 3. They can't be trusted and oversample repukes.

The last 2 polls out of NJ (surveyUSA and FDU) showed Kerry up 8, then you had another strategic vision BS polls with Kerry only up 1, then you had star ledger with Kerry +13. The GOP polling firms are doing there best to keep dumya in the game, it isn't working. NJ is safe Kerry and always has been.

Latest Michigan poll was done by Zogby and shows Kerry +5, nothing to worry about there.

[WI_DEM]

6. Survey USA poll from last night has Kerry up 53-45 in PA.

also, he is not repeating mistake which Gore made in Ohio, Gore didn't visit Ohio in 2000 from mid October until election day. Kerry was just in Philly on Monday before 100,000 plus people and he and Edwards will be there again.

[KellyPaDem]

8. Bull

I have been volunteering in the Democratic office in Philly suburbs---EXTREMELY republican area. After 3 weeks of calling independent and republicans and democrats I have talked to 5 people voting Bush. Also, the independents and democrats are fired up and everyone I talk to say, "don't worry, we are definitely voting." Trust me Pennsylvania is not as close as the polls say and it is sure as hell NOT to close to call. PA between 8-12% for Kerry!

[JusticeForAll]

9. Fiction

zzzz :)

[NJmaverick]

11. No way in hell bush is winning NJ

No one is even targeting Dem or repuke