WaPo Tracking - 49 Kerry / 48 Chimp

[jefferson_dem]

Kerry down one from yesterday.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/elections/2004/charting.html

[Bush was AWOL]

1. Good news! 3 days in a row with a Kerry lead

Bush is toast!

[DemocratSinceBirth]

2. could bush flatline at 48?

nt

[flpoljunkie]

5. Some pollsters are saying just this--Bush seems to be stuck at 47-48%.

How this trend continues! However, we cannot afford to let up, as these polls are all pretty much within the margin of error!

John Kerry is absolutely right when he says "the only poll that counts is the one on election day."

GOTV!

[lancdem]

7. Frankly, I wouldn't be surprised if he gets

46 or 47 percent, because incumbents often do end up a couple points under what they're polling.

[sonicx]

3. just as i guessed!

:)

[tedoll78]

4. I'm remembering..

the polls in 2000 consistently underestimated Dem turnout. In 39 of the last 43 national polls, it was Bush who was leading. Now, we have ties or narrow Kerry leads, with the odd Bush lead once in a while.. all within the margin of error. If the pollsters want to keep underestimating us, that's fine. We'll just work even harder than we did in 2000.. and blow them all away.

[jefferson_dem]

6. Best news is that Kerry maintained a lead, even with Sunday's 3 pt gain

dropping off.

[tritsofme]

9. Sunday doesn't drop off until

tomorrow's poll.

[jefferson_dem]

11. Are you sure? Maybe i'm not reading things right.

Aren't these numbers from 27-26-25, with 24th dropping off?

[tritsofme]

16. Now after looking at it

I think this poll might be a 4 day rolling average, meaning Sunday doesn't roll off until Friday's poll comes out.

See post 12.

[tritsofme]

8. Sunday was one of Kerry's big days

It will be interesting to see if it holds up after it rolls off tomorrow.

[jefferson_dem]

10. Look above - Great minds think alike or there are no original thoughts!?

I'll go with the latter. LOL!

Yep, let's hope the MO stays with us.

[Donny247]

13. Saturday was huge

Saturday, which was Kerry's highest single-day track, has dropped off the total. Sunday was also good, but the fact that we're still ahead is encouraging. It probably means we're at rough parity with Bush.

[jefferson_dem]

19. Thanks. I was confusing the report date with the field date.

[tritsofme]

12. Wait is WaPo now a 4 day rolling average??

The latest tracking result represents the four-night average of data collected by telephone Oct 23 - 26 among a randomly selected national sample of 2,412 adults, including 2,107 self-identified registered voters and 1,709 likely voters

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/polls/2004tracking/track102704.html

I thought they were a three day average....that means that Saturday and Sunday are both still in this result...

[Dalvis]

14. 3 day average

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A9363-2004Oct5.html

This tracking poll is based on a rolling three-day sample. About 350 likely voters are polled each day.

[tritsofme]

17. 2 conflicting links from WaPo

which one is right?

[jefferson_dem]

15. OK. A four day rolling average. Was thinking what was reported on Sun-

(i.e. the 3 pt Kerry gain) would fall off since it was a three day rolling.

Either way, things are looking good. Tomorrow will tell us more.

[sonicx]

18. they changed resently, i think