What Is Happening in New Mexico??

[DemocracyInaction]

I think it is totally necessary to keep all the Gore states. I cannot figure out what is going on in NM with Bill Richardson there, etc. I keep seeing polls with Bush quite a bit up---I wouldn't even mind if it was basically tied. Anybody from there? Anybody know more about the polling?? Anybody have a prediction?? I think we are in a position to hold all the Gore states but this one is driving me nutso.

[lancdem]

1. Only Zogby's tracking poll has Bush up in NM

I think Kerry will win it.

[indigobusiness]

2. It's Imus' fault

he went over to the dark side.

[okieinpain]

17. imus said that kerry is going to win, this morning.

[indigobusiness]

22. Well, duh. Even Imus knows when the jig is up.

But, man...that is good to hear. I used to wake up with Imus...usually laughing. Haven't heard his show in years, but I had the sense he was drifting, badly.

[slestak]

3. Fret not

New Mexico will be blue. More than half the state live in Albuquerque and Santa Fe. Kerry will take both those populaces, and judging by the rally turnout in Las Cruces, I think we're pretty safe there, too. From what I've heard, the Native American population is overwhlemingly pro-Kerry.

The state I'm worried about the most is Wisconsin.

[kostya]

6. Do the Native Americans vote at a high rate though?

[slestak]

7. From what I hear

this year, they will. Albuquerque and Santa Fe are bordered by pueblos (reservations). I think we will see a turnout from these pueblos that's higher than usual. The more rural pueblos and reservations, probably not.

EDIT: This is coming from one of my clients at a Native American governmental agency. He/she is from Isleta Pueblo -- just south of ABQ.

[kypp]

4. I live in Santa Fe...

and around this part of the state, it's like 80% Kerry. But the farther south you go, and west (toward TX), the more Bushies there are. So, as always, it depends on turnout - and early turnout here looks phenomenal. So, don't worry, NM is BLUE!

:grouphug:

[slestak]

8. actually

Texas is east of NM :) But you're right -- the farther away you get from ABQ-Santa Fe-Taos, the more conservatives there are.

[kypp]

13. Ooops! I meant EAST! Thanks for the correction!

[colonel odis]

16. i'm looking forward to visiting your fair city for the first time

the week after senator kerry is elected. hope it's not too cold.

[bush equals idiot]

5. When Bill Clinton finishes over there,

it will be DARK blue.

[lynintenn]

9. RIchardson

always seems to be a little negative in all his interviews.
This guy worries me.

[slestak]

12. he's not real popular

among the democrats I know. They don't hate him, they just think he's kind of a cheeseball and in desparate need of a tailor.

[King Coal]

10. I live in Grants. I'm working with Moveon and we are working hard.

I believe we will be blue. Many of the republicans I know are not going to vote.

[Cogito ergo doleo]

11. NM is going for Kerry!!!

We will be blue.

[Awsi Dooger]

14. It's a 50/50 state that Gore happened to win in 2000

By 300+ votes. A bellwether state, hardly a blue state. It actually trended slightly more GOP than the national popular vote average in both '96 and '00. In a dead even race, why are we supposed to be automatically leading in New Mexico?

Someone on DU wrote that election day 2000 featured a heavy snowstorm in New Mexico that only the high population, and Democratic leaning, areas like Albuquerque were able to deal with at polling places. I have no idea if that is accurate or was decisive.

I know we desperately need to get out the youth vote in New Mexico. While 18-24 year olds voted at a paltry 31% nationally in 2000, in southwestern states like New Mexico and Arizona it was even more ridiculous, in the 21% range.

[BamaLefty]

15. We NEED New Mexico

5 votes may not seem like much... but we must win the Land of Enchantment.

[Awsi Dooger]

18. I agree we need it; no reason to assume it is ours

Not exactly a longterm Democratic trend in New Mexico. It voted substantially for Bush over Dukakis in '88. As I mentioned, even though Clinton won NM twice and Gore in 2000, the last two elections New Mexico was slightly more Republican than the nation in general.

New Mexico has actually been the champ bellwether state among all 50 the last 4 presidential cycles. It has been within 2% of the national margin every time, the only state with that distinction.

[pabloseb]

21. Hasn't the hispanic population grown?

My undestanding was that the state was trending democract partly because the hispanic population is growing fast. Also, isn't the governor very popular?

As you say, it's all about turnout. Especially youth/hispanic tournour.

[Arugula Latte]

23. Also, the "groovy" population is growing

Taos & Santa Fe are attracting ex-Californians and other liberals drawn by awesome scenery, art, skiing, good vibes, what have you.

I love N.M. I used to visit relatives in Hobbes (NOT a scenic wonderland and much too close to west Texas), but the northern half of the state is beeeee-yoooooo-teeeee-ful.

[Awsi Dooger]

24. Not only growing; the highest percentage Hispanic population of any state

I can't find my specific numbers, but I think it's something like 45%. The white non-Hispanic numbers have been steadily declining in New Mexico. Also, the Hispanic numbers are concentrated in the largest cities. That should all mean New Mexico will trend Democratic, but I have not seen any dramatic indication of that, even if they do have a Democratic governor in Richardson.

One friend of mine who follows politics closely said the Hispanic income level is rising faster in New Mexico than nationally, and those Hispanics may not be as automatically Democratic as we think. I really haven't confirmed that. New Mexico doesn't stike me as a high income state, but with a statewide huge percentage of Hispanics obviously some of them will earn the highest paying positions.

[Quixote1818]

19. We won the registration wars by a good margine. If it's about turnout

and I think it will be. I think Kerry will win by two or thee points.

[RoadRunner]

20. I talked to the Kerry campaign office in Albuquerque today.

They said they're very confident we will win New Mexico. Even SUVs and pickups have Kerry bumper stickers and I've seen a few "Republicans for Kerry" stickers. * is toast in New Mexico.

New Mexico stays blue, take it to the bank.

[novadem]

25. Not to mention

HI, IA, MN and WI!!! This is our home turf damnit!