tracking the tracking polls -- teeny/tiny trends

[lsuguy]

Ok, are there any discernible trends? In the tracking polls, there are two very tiny trends, maybe, barely. One is that over the last week or so Bush has moved ever-so-slightly upward toward 50%, averaging just about .1%/day. His average in the four tracking polls today is 47.95%, so if Bush continues this pace through Nov. 2, he would end up with 48.55% going into election day.

Meanwhile, the other tiny trend is that Kerry has been slowly narrowing the gap between the two in the tracking polls. Over the last week or so, he has on average gained .2%/day. The average of the three tracking polls today has Kerry down 1.425%. If this pace continues, it would put Kerry down just about 1/4% going into election day.

I'll hasten to add two other things. First, these trends are very small, but there have not been any major swings in them over the last week. Put differently, this thing is unbelievably tight, and seems to be staying that way with only the tiniest of trends each day. Second, depending upon what happens tonight, tomorrow should be somewhat of a good day for Kerry in the tracking polls.

Questions remaining: how much will the intensity factor help Kerry on election day (polls indicate the dems are winning this); how good is each side's GOTV effort (labor and urban efforts vs. Ralph Reed's right-wingers); will the undecideds split disproportionately for Kerry. My guess is that dems do well on intensity and slightly better than GOP on GOTV, but that the undecideds will split evenly or closer to the last polls proportionately rather than heavily in favor of the challenger this year (because there's such intensity and attention, I don't think the conventional 75-25 split against the incumbant will happen). Bottom line: Kerry wins on machine stuff and intensity/anger. But we've GOT to get out the vote! It's tight as can be in the polls......

[DODI]

1. An interesting poll number I heard on MSNBC today was

that * is only getting 68% of the Evangelical vote -- down from 80% in 2000. Considering they wanted all of them that is very disappointing for Rove. Has anyone else heard about the Evangelical vote?

[MidwestTransplant]

3. We should remind them that Bush is in favor of civil unions

and he flips off cameras.

[pabloseb]

2. That's a realisitic picture

No doubt you'll be called a troll by some for trying to describe reality.

[cubsfan forever]

5. Yes, GOTV

No, I don't think either one of you are trolls. Methinks you doth protesteth too much, though.

Professor 2

[missouri dem]

4. What I see is the best Democratic GOTV effort ever.

Look for record turnout on Nov. 2nd. and a Kerry LANDSLIDE.

[DemocracyInaction]

6. Regarding "undecided"

There are very few of them left (I believe 4%) and I believe in this intense year that 3.5% say they are undecided to pollsters when the reality is they don't know what to say because they are uninformed and not going to vote anyhow!! Of those very few who will go out to the polls, I, too, don't think it's the usual "break for the challenger" thing because this is different (you know with that noble war and the evil terrorists ready to kill us if Kerry is elected). Therefore, I expect them either to split 50-50 or stay at home because they can't decide which day is the goddamn election!!! It all hinges on two things (don't flame me) 1) getting out the vote and 2) who is more cleaver at voter fraud and currently the repubs are much better at that than we are---we lost our touch years ago (where is a Mayor Daley type when you need a whole nation of them)!!!