Kerry opening sizable leads in Michigan and Pennsylvania (Bowers)

[swag]

Here's part of a post from Chris Bowers at Jerome Armstrong's
excellent blog www.mydd.com :

Michigan
	Kerry	  Bush
Zogby	49	44
RR	51	46
Mitch	45	44
EPIC	49	43
SUSA	51	44
Mean	49.0	44.2

Pennsylvania
	Kerry	  Bush
Zogby	49	45
SUSA	53	45
RR	50	46
ARG	50	47
MC	49	44
Mean	50.2	45.4

Clearly, Kerry is in the lead in both states. In fact, it is
not even really that close, as Bush is at 44.2% and 45.4%
respectively, a point from which an incumbent has no hope of
recovery. Will Bush's last minute blitz in these states make
enough of a difference for it to become close? I doubt it, and
I hope Kerry does not take the bait. He should keep his ad
buys up in both states, and GOTV people already in those two
states should stay (especially PA!), but there is no reason
for him to visit either state again during this campaign. 

[teryang]

1. Great news!

Thanks, I needed that.

[0007]

2. Another healthy sign that junior is going down big big big time.

Kerry by a landslide.

[cubsfan forever]

3. Kick! n/t

Professor 2

[DemocracyInaction]

4. Help me with my headache

Maybe it's the initials for Michigan and Minnesota. I keep reading tonight different state polls here about MI being close or Bush gaining an edge, etc. I ASSUME that is Michigan and it didn't seem right because I've seen nothing to indicate that Michigan was slipping to Bush. Sooooo, is it Minnesota that is having some problems??? Last I saw when the MI numbers were thrown out was someone going crazy saying that Bush was not winning in "Minnesota". Somehow I feel Bush isn't winning shit in either of those states.

[USA_1]

10. Minnesota

The polls show Senator Kerry ahead by about 3 % points.

In all honesty, I find that hard to believe considering how many Kerry-Edwards lawn signs and bumper stickers we see EVERYWHERE. As I was waiting for the bus to get home from work and there were three cars waiting for the light to change. All three cars had Kerry-Edwards bumper stickers on them. It's like that throughout the Twin Cities.

But then, you never know if the powers that be haven't planned on rigging the vote count.

[tritsofme]

5. I think MI is definitely gone for *

PA is on its way there...

[swag]

6. Lemme just kick this again

at www.mydd.com , Bowers has also added New Hampshire and New
Jersey just for the hell of it.

Update: Oh yeah, New Hampshire looks pretty good too, but
Kerry should feel free to stop there on his way back to Boston
for the Election Night returns: 

New Hampshire
	Kerry	  Bush
FPC	50	41
RR	49	47
ARG	46	47
Suffolk	46	41
Zogby	51	46
Mean	48.4	44.4Not bad.
Update 2: New Jersey, by popular demand: 

New Jersey
	Kerry	  Bush
Quin	46	46
R2000    50       43
FDU	49	41
SUSA	51	43
Rutgers	51	38
Mean	49.4	42.2

[Lexingtonian]

7. yep

Trend from 2000 predicts that Pennsylvania is a 51-47 Kerry win and Michigan a 53-46.

I have no idea why the Bush people made such a play at Michigan; it never had all the fundies and such they needed in order to win. My guess is that it has something to do with promises made in back rooms during the Nick Smith affair to Michigan House people- maybe Nick Smith, maybe Mike Rogers, and maybe a Party effort to drive Joe Schwarz away from turning moderate/possible move to the Democrats. (They're pretty afraid of their ranks cracking in the states moving Democratic in the region. Kerry Republicans are the new Reagan Democrats.) And a certain amount of opportunism in the K/E neglect of western Michigan.

Wisconsin/Iowa/Minnesota and maybe Missouri/Arkansas are the real battlegrounds at the moment- there seems to be some possibility there of demotivating turnout for the other side, basically. Ohio, Florida, and the Southwest states are all where ads and campaign stops don't matter anymore- it's all real effort and appearance of effort on the ground- GOTV- and PR positiveness there.

[Lexingtonian]

8. dupe

(sorry, double posted it)

[BayStateBoy]

9. Looks Great...But What are the Standard Errors of the Polls?