Wash. Monthly: Bush campaign scared shitless by minority turnout

[quaoar]

http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/archives/individual/2004_10/005002.php

THE MINORITY VOTE....Hmmm. Republican pollster Tony Fabrizio has just finished a survey of 12 battleground states and finds Bush and Kerry tied with 47% of the vote apiece. But when he weights for minority turnout based on the 2000 exit polls, Kerry is ahead 49.2%-45.7%. And when he further updates the weighting to take into account the most recent census results, Kerry is ahead 49.9%-44.7%.

As Fabrizio blandly puts it, "It is clear that minority turnout is a wildcard in this race and represents a huge upside for Sen. Kerry and a considerable challenge for the President's campaign." More accurately, if Fabrizio is right — that Kerry is ahead by 5% overall in the battleground states — Kerry is a sure winner on November 2.

Suddenly the Bush campaign's obsession with challenging voters in minority neighborhoods makes a lot of sense, doesn't it? Their own internal polling is probably telling them the same thing that Fabrizio's poll says: unless they somehow manage to keep the minority vote down, they're doomed.

[Warpy]

1. he'd better be scared shitless, period

I just drove by the early polling place here in central NM, and the lines were all the way down the block. This is NOT good news for Bush, if folks are willing to wait for a couple of hours to vote on a Wednesday afternoon.

Focusing on the minority vote in a few inner cities is not going to do the little bastard any good. I've been talking about the rage out here in workaday land for a couple of years. It looks like people are acting on it.

[quaoar]

4. It may be such a huge turnout

That Bush doesn't have enough thugs and lawyers to go around to try to steal it.

Of course, don't be surprised if police traffic roadblocks spring up next Tuesday.

[Inland]

2. So much for Bush trying to win over minorities.

Vote for him or not at all.

[The_Casual_Observer]

3. This will shake out as something like 40% 55% Kerry

I don't know why chimp is campaigning so hard, he is pissing off the guy that will be responsible for his pardon.

[friesianrider]

5. No kidding, and internal polls have Kerry up among all voters anyway...

At least that's what I'm hearing from the few people I know who are "in the know".

In the last week, I've heard a few GOP pollsters saying that they're very concerned because * should have opened up a 5%+ lead over Kerry in battleground states and 10% or more nationally.

These are all GOOD signs for us guys. Let's keep our eyes open for any intimidation or suppression and stop it in it's tracks.

[snippy]

7. Several weeks ago the political editor of the Wall Strret Journal and

at least one other reporter said that they had been told by the Bush campaign that Bush would need at least a 5 point lead going into election day in order to win.

[snippy]

6. Very interesting. It does explain Bush's obsession with suppressing

the minority vote. What an evil, vile, foul, piece of filth.

[Arugula Latte]

8. Hopefully

as these reports of voter intimidation and disenfranchisement leak out and get around (thank you Internet!), the minority community will be more and more outraged and more and more determined to oust this evil, illegitimate and corrupt regime.

[Kimber Scott]

9. MSNBC is publisher a Voter Help hotline number, for anyone having

trouble voting. It would be nice, if all local news channels did the same.