ABC News on the Senate races.

[aquart]

How Daschle is in the fight of his life. How the Dems hope to take the Senate because if only 3 seats shift....BUT then the talking head went on to say how unlikely it was because ALL THE CLOSE RACES WERE IN HEAVILY REPUBLICAN STATES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Holy Hannah! Idiot had no idea what he was saying.

[LSdemocrat]

1. A pundit who didn't know what he was talking about?

What is the world coming to? :shrug:

[Wapsie B]

2. I can't wait to see

just how long chimpy's coattails are. Personally, I don't think he has any coattails at all.

[aquart]

3. Yeah, but people like to split the ticket.

Democratic president, Republican congress. Or vice versa.

But to say that the close races were in the Red states???? Oh, my.

[Awsi Dooger]

4. Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Alaska, Kentucky, North Carolina

All of those states were at least 9% more Republican than the national popular vote average in 2000. I couldn't fit Colorado in the subject line. It has drifted slightly our way since 2000, but was also more than 9% GOP leaning in both 1996 and 2000.

The talking head is very accurate. Similar to 2002, we are essentialy trying to win senatorial road games.

The only other states with competitive senate races are Florida and Louisiana. Unless you consider Pennsylvania a possibility, which I do not. Florida is a 50/50 state. Louisiana tilts several points GOP. We are not even contesting it in the presidential race and just hope the Republican candidate Vitter does not reach 50%, to avoid a December runoff.

A week ago I thought we had a 25% chance to retake the senate. That appears to have been ridiculously optimistic, given late polls that show Burr ahead of Bowles in NC, DeMint widening a lead over Tenenbaum in SC, Bunning stabilizing with a lead in the KY polls, Thune leading in some SD polls, and Coburn ahead or tied of Carson in OK, along with the sudden possibility Vitter reaches 50% in LA.

Knowles in AK, Castor in FL and Salazar in CO are generally ahead or tied in the most recent polls.

[Dob Bole]

5. I think we have a little bit of a cushion...

First of all, Louisiana has never elected a Republican senator. Castor will win if Kerry wins, simply because of the HUGE Democratic turnout in that state. Salazar and Knowles have a good shot. And Obama will pick up a Republican seat by default.

But the main thing to look for is party switchers. Jeffords caucuses with us, but would be willing to join the Democratic party if we came up one vote short. I have also heard that Chafee might be willing to switch parties. So it's very likely that we'll end up with control of the Senate.

I also think it's unlikely that Daschle will lose...but I wish we had some comfort room, because I want him out. Now I know how the British feel about Blair.

[Awsi Dooger]

6. That's not exactly a cushion, because it still leaves us below 50

I don't think it's realistic to count on party switching. Jeffords perhaps if it's 50-49-1. Chafee has a long family history in the GOP.

I don't share your opinion of Daschle. Otherwise, I agree it's unlikely Vitter will win if we get to a runoff, but one poll has him at 51%. Obama is obviously a cinch. Tenenbaum and Mongiardi are significant underdogs. The key races next Tuesday, IMO, are South Dakota, Alaska, Colorado, Florida and Oklahoma. We need to sweep or win 4/5.