How About This for Good News, Bad News?

[louis c]

As many of you know, I follow Zogby and Rasmussen. They both have tracking polls of key battleground states. Their numbers don't always coincide. So, let me give you the best news, and from whom. Then the worst news, and from whom.

Best News:

Florida, Tie 48% with Kerry ahead 49%-47% from Rasmussen.

Michigan, Kerry, 51%-46% from Rasmussen.

Minnesota, Kerry 47%-44% from Zogby.

Ohio, Kerry, 46%-45% from Zogby.

Iowa, Tie 45% from Zogby

Wisconsin, Kerry 50%-46% from Zogby

Pennsylvania, Kerry 50%-46% from Rasmussen

Colorado, Kerry 50%-46% from Zogby

As you can see, this scenario is a Kerry landslide.

http://rasmussenreports.com

http://zogby.com

Here's the bad news:

Florida, Bush 48%-46% from Zogby

Michigan, Tie 47% from Zogby

Minnesota, Bush 48%-45% from Rasmussen

Ohio, Bush 50%-46% from Rasmussen

Iowa, Bush 48%-46% from Rasmussen

Wisconsin, Kerry 48%-47% from Rasmussen

Pennsylvania, Kerry 49%-46% from Zogby

Colorado, Bush 50%-45% from Rasmussen

In this scenario, Kerry's in real trouble. The point is, we have to get out the vote, and that first scenario will come true.

[Mizmoon]

1. Last time I said this, people flamed me

but I really mean it - polls can't tell anyone anything, no one knows what's really going to happen, and I refuse to drive myself mad by wading through them. We should just keep fighting the best fight we can and then sit back on election day and let the chips fall where they may.

[blackcat77]

2. Eyes OFF the Polls, Eyes ON the Prize! nt

[lancdem]

3. How is Kerry leading Bush by 3 in PA bad news?

BTW, even your bad news scenario isn't that troublesome. Bush is only at 50 percent in 2 states, and with the undecideds going to Kerry, he would win any state he's within a couple of points of Bush.

[louis c]

4. Because leading by 4 points is better.

[lancdem]

5. Sure, but all your other examples show more of a contrast

Anyway, we can all agree it does hinge on turnout, as you say.

[DaveinMD]

6. there are other polls

and Zogby's track record is so poor in state polling, I almost completely dismiss those polls. The national popular vote will almost always determine how the close states go. If Kerry wins by 2 points, he'll win the key states. My gut says he'll win by that much.