Mike Malloy, this one's for you!

[TruthIsAll]

Mike,

Truth IS All

Notice that Bush is flat on his back at 46% in the national state-weighted polling trend.


Kerry’s win probability is approaching 100% as he opens up daylight in the battleground states.


Kerry’s projected national vote is increasing.


What are Kerry’s chances if he gets 75% of the undecided vote? A hair below absolute.


Kerry is surging in the Battleground states, especially Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania.


Kerry’s win probabilities in the battleground states are up.


He has come back from his September decline in the polls.


The pollsters call it a dead heat. But they don’t tell you undecideds break at least 2-1 for the challenger.


Bush job approval is trending down to 48%. Did I ever tell you how much I...


The more polls included in a group average, the smaller the margin of error.


The Monte Carlo method simulates 5000 election trials. So the probability of a Kerry win is just
The number of trial wins divided by 5000..


The simulation EV outcomes are normally distributed around his mean (expected) electoral vote.




Interested in the latest polling results? Want an introduction to the methodology?
Then go here.
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/

[Thrill]

1. Did Malloy say something about the polls?

[TruthIsAll]

2. No, I just want to let him know that things are looking up.

He reads DU.

I don't have the patience to sit on the line waiting to call in so....

He's the best.

[Thrill]

3. kick

so he can see it

[TruthIsAll]

4. Come on Mike, talk about the election fraud that's sprouting up all

over the place...