Hawaii for bush???????????????

[greenbriar]

you have got to be kidding me

electoral-vote.com

[ronnykmarshall]

1. Hello?

California, "Weak Kerry"????

That's why I have no faith in this web site.

[iwantmycountryback]

2. He's obsessed with strategic vision

He would be better if he didn't use that bogus poll. There are so many polls now you'd think he could just average them, but he just picks one and it seems to favor Bush.

[Silverhair]

6. Not True.

The guy that does that web site is a Democrat. He uses the most recent poll. He does not attempt to analyze if the poll may or may not be an outlier. There have been only two published polls on HI, so there isn't a lot of good info to go with. The paper that did the first poll is a Democrat paper.

[Not Me]

3. Hawaii has been shifting over the last decade...

evidenced by election of Lingle (R) Governor, and before that changing its stance on gay unions...where initially it was thought it would follow Vermont's lead.

BUT...they are still strongly in support of those values that Kerry supports.

[LTR]

4. It's a fluke poll

All the other ones were solidly tilted toward Kerry. This one is from a group called SMS Research, and it seems way off. Sounds like they were polling wealthy retirement condos.

It's a bullshit poll - no way Hawaii is going red. And I've never heard of SMS Research.

[DemFromMem]

8. You're right - poll oversurveyed Republicans by 25+%

I examined exit polling data for the last three elections and Democrats outnumbered Republicans at the polls by more than 15%. This poll assume Republicans would outnumber Democrats by about 10%. If the data was properly weighted it would show Kerry winning in a landslide.

This folks is the perfect example of how to lie through a poll. The weighting factor is the dirty little secret in all these polls. A lot of the pollsters don't release the weighting. Definitely don't trust them. The ones that do - check whether their assumption is close to the last election. Party identifications don't change dramatically from election to election even though many people will crossover and vote for the other party depending on the candidate. Pollsters who say otherwise are not being honest.

[LTR]

12. And CNN did a serious story about this the other day

Questioning whether Kerry is struggling in Hawaii.

Well, I guess he's struggling with voting Republicans.

Whatever happened to the good ol' days when TV news organizations actually reported stories? Can't stand this speculation and spin bullshit. UGH!

[ibegurpard]

5. What worries me about this

And I DON'T believe that it's legitimately this close...is that there are vote fraud shenanigans gearing up there that polls like this are a set-up to mask. The amazing results in Georgia in 2002, although strange, are at least plausible. Hawaii going to Bush is not plausible and there's no way I will ever believe that it was anything BUT fraud if it happens. As a matter of fact, this information is causing me to have serious doubts about the legitimacy of the election that brought their Repuke governor into power.

[greenbriar]

7. so true

.

[Cha]

10. I know some people from Hawaii and

the governor before lingle was a dem by the name of Ben Cayetano..

And they didn't like him..I don't know what all he did wrong..but here's some cartoons I found on google..

[tomfodw]

13. Georgia '02 was stolen

Impure and not so simple.

[ibegurpard]

15. No argument from me

but what I'm saying is that in Georgia it was plausible. Hawaii would not be plausible.

[tritsofme]

9. Kerry and * are buying ads in Hawaii

the fact that both camps are spending hundreds of thousands of dollars in a state that bush only got 37% of the vote in 2000 means these polls are legit to me.

[Cha]

14. Well, I would have thought that

the Hawaiians got the news out there how bad bush has been the last four years.

My son certainly has..he registered to vote in Hawaii in September so he can vote for Kerry!

EDIT~ To say..And Barack Obama's sister lives in Hawaii and Obama's Convention speech was all over the news out there!

[chuckrocks]

11. its true!!

they want the ol' sploration contracts

[shraby]

16. Does * even know where Hawaii is????

[John Q. Citizen]

17. no, the guy is cool. He uses the latest

poll available. Sometimes it doesn't tilt the score to Kerry but the guy is an honest demo, not a shill.

Read the criteria he uses and don't get mad at him. He doesn't do the polling.

[marlakay]

18. I have written on here twice no way but I just talked to my

daughter who lives on base over there. She said that the repubs have spent a lot of time and money talking to people and there are alot of ads. I said why? she said they don't want to change pres in the middle of the war. I said that is stupid when Bush is the last person we need, she agreed but said that is what she hears on the local news.

She also said its not the military vote since most of them vote out of the state, that its people mostly who live in honolulu where most of the population is.

I was surprised because I spent first two weeks of sept there and all the locals I talked to were voting for kerry. She said I hung out in libral areas not honolulu and she was right I didn't go there.