Isn't this election starting to tip in our favor?

[Ell09]

Doing simple Electoral College match, it seems virtually impossible for either candidate to win this election without winning at least two of the "big three". As of today, Pennsylvania seems to be Kerry Country. A vast majority of the polls in that state have Kerry ahead, and I believe every poll has a slight bias towards Republicans (due to who has time to answer the telephone and take a survey and who doesn't).

That leaves Ohio and Florida, and Bush MUST sweep. I heard on two different news broadcasts today that "the Republicans own internals show them tied in Ohio". When have the Republicans ever underestimated their strength? In addition last week another one of these talking heads on TV said that they (the Republicans) believe they need to be up between 3-5% in the Ohio state polls to have a shot of carrying the state due to the large number of newly registered voters. Four years ago, more people went to the polls in Florida intending to vote for Al Gore than did for George Dubya Bush. I think turnout will be at an all time high in Florida with people determined to make their votes count.

In a worst case scenario, Ohio and Florida are both coin flips. For Bush to win, Tails (ie Horses ass) has to come up twice in a row. I

[doni_georgia]

1. The momentum is definitely on our side

The polls are trending toward Kerry. Not talking about a single poll, but taking all the polls and averaging. Still, the polls aren't accurate this time, in my opinion, because of the record high number of first time voters who are not included in any LV model. I honestly don't believe this race is even going to be close. I think both sides know this. That is why the Kerry team is so calm and the Bush* team seems so frantic. If you have noticed, every day for the past few days there has been some republican on TV spelling doom for Bush. It's a beautiful thing.

[Pump Man]

2. I GOT E-MAIL - LOUISIANA IN PLAY- next I GET CALL FOR MEETING

WE ARE WITHIN 5% striking distance, BIG EFFORT TO GET VOTE, THIS VOTE THEY CAN NOT POLL VOTE----http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6092749

[liberal N proud]

3. The media will not play it that way.

They will play shrub in the lead until the very end.

[iconoclastic cat]

4. It's all about selling pills and burgers, my friend.

And butts in the seats.

[NDFan]

5. The wind is at our back

Watch as we go up, up and AWAY! :D

Bush can't break 50 percent in any polls. An incumbent not breaking 50 percent is rarely reelected. :nopity:

Karl Rove said a week ago he believes Bush needs to be ahead in the polls by 4 points the weekend before the election.

Only two days until it's Saturday! :D B:nuke:sh

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[Cronus Protagonist]

6. I just hope we have good lawyers this time

And a candidate who will fight the bastards tooth and nail no matter what. And I'm pretty sure we do on the latter.

[T Town Jake]

7. This election has been over, for all practical purposes, since..

..the debates. It's going to be a clear Kerry win and a Democratic Senate, period.

[terrya]

8. There's so much dissatisfaction out there.

It's palpable. There is a real sense that things are seriously fucked up in this country these past four years. I think John Kerry "sealed the deal" to use a now hoary cliche during the debates. In John Kerry, the American people saw a calm, forceful, resolute man who is Presidential.

That's why, despite the polls showing it tied, or Bush leading, I believe, in my heart of hearts, that Kerry will win. And yes, the Democrats will take back the Senate.