Bush Leads Kerry by Two Points - Reuters / Zogby Poll 48 -46

[jezebel]

http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=electionsNews&storyID=6642493

Bush had to have had a phenomenal day yesterday, because Kerry was up 5 points the day before.

[NDFan]

1. edit

Edited: Kerry @ 46.

[sonicx]

3. kerry's at 46, not bush.

[Peanut Gallery]

2. Wired has a great article on polls

Voter Polls Don't Count for Much
http://www.wired.com/news/culture/0,1284,65481,00.html

There are various reasons why polling as practiced by Gallup, Marist, Pew and Zogby, as well as media outlets like CBS News, The New York Times, Newsweek, Fox News, Reuters and USA Today that attach their names to them, is more palmistry than science. One built-in flaw is the dreaded margin of error, which in a close election completely nullifies results that can vary by as much as plus or minus 4 percent. That means if a polling outfit calls the election a dead heat (say, 48 percent to 48 percent), in reality either Bush or Kerry could win the popular vote 52 percent to 44 percent. You know your data is faulty when you can go from a tie to a landslide in the same press release.
(more)

This might not be the best analogy, but imho - watching the polls on a daily basis is a bit like watching the stock market every day. The short-term numbers can drive you crazy. It's the long-term trends that matter.

[endnote]

28. And remember that the MOE is only 95% anyway

So, you have a theoretical 5% probablity of an even larger swing. Given that the sampling is always biased (for instance, what type of people tend NOT to answer the phone or hang up for this kind of stuff?) that makes the entire thing pretty much useless. I mean, those guys make a living with it because there is demand for forecasting (why else would palm readers or astrologists be in business?), but that's it....

[Dalvis]

4. Somethings up

I've been keeping careful track of the numbers, and I don't know what's up with Zogby, but there's no way Kerry was up 5 pts. the day before. I don't know why he wrote that, but if Kerry were up by that much in that one day he would have had a slight lead yesterday. According to my numbers Bush had a 2 point lead in the Monday sample, a 1 point lead in the Tuesday sample, and 3 point lead in yesterday's sample. I'm starting to think Zogby is making this up as he goes along. Anyhow, its still very close. If we're only a point or two behind on election day, we win.

[City Lights]

21. I thought his "Kerry had a good day" yesterday was odd also.

I was expecting the race to tighten yesterday because junior's big day (Saturday) was no longer included in the sample. Instead Zogby chalks it up to Kerry having a 5-point lead in Tuesday's polling. Doesn't make sense. :shrug:

Isn't Zogby going to be on TDS tonight?

[helpisontheway]

5. Man...

what was it yesterday? Why in the world is Zogby going around saying it is Kerry's to lose if he is constantly showing Bush up?

[sonicx]

6. "The candidates are locked in a dead heat among Catholics, young voters

voters over 70, men and women, and independents."

men and women? young voters?

[Dalvis]

7. suspicious....

To me it doesn't ring true that Kerry is in a "dead heat" with young voters, independents, and women. That's contrary to every poll out there. Even the ones showing Kerry behind.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

11. His Internals Are Weird...

Different from WAPO's internals...

I tell you something really weird...


In Zogby's final 00 poll that had Gore up 48-46 his internals were bizarre... It showed Gore leading un the south... How could he have been leading in the south when he was tied in Florida and lost the rest of the region by double digits...

Weird...

[sonicx]

14. WP had Kerry up 6 or 7 in independents

And had a gender gap. Zogby has genders in 'dead heat.'

[TransitJohn]

10. Only group left out there

is who? Martians? Foreigners? :wtf:

[mvd]

8. Hmmm..

I honestly think this poll hasn't been making sense lately. The numbers didn't jibe yesterday, and no one could explain. If Bush really did have a great day, how can a poll that has one candidate with a great day one day and the other csndidate with a great day the next day mean anything. :shrug:

[jezebel]

13. I hope you are right, and I think you probably are. Because I think Bush

must have had something like a +7 day yesterday. And we know the WaPo is not going to be good today since they said * polled better than Kerry on Monday and Tuesday.

[mvd]

15. Why wouldn't Zogby note that great day?

The internals look the same.

:shrug: again.

[jezebel]

16. He hasn't posted it on his site yet, he didn't note the +5 the day before

for Kerry on the reuters page, he had it on his page. Although he did mention it on the video on reuters.

[mvd]

17. Well, I'll check the Zogby page later

Still seems strange with similar internals.

[jezebel]

18. I agree, it looks totally weird. NT

nt

[0007]

9. What could one expect from Reuters? One of the biggest propaganda

rags in the U.S. - Yeah, and they carry water for junior and his cabal.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

12. Actually- Isn't Reuters Accused Of Having A Left Wing Bias...

They caught Hell for calling the terrorists insurgents...

[0007]

19. Perhaps!

[DemocratSinceBirth]

20. Doesn't Pat Robertson Own UPI?

[0007]

22. Check it out!

http://www.auburn.edu/~lowrygr/media.html

[ollie3]

23. Zogby misspoke at least once.....

Zogby released his one day tracking numbers for F and S to be 49/46 Bush on fri, and 50/43 bush on saturday. I have been charting the new numbers, calculating the new one day numbers as we go. If Zogby's numbers released about friday and saturday are correct, Kerry did NOT have a huge day on Monday like Zogby said yesterday, I have monday's daily total to be 47/46 Bush! Today's results from yesterday bring yesterday's daily total to 45/43 Bush.

SO EITHER ZOGBY WAS WRONG IN RELEASING HIS NUMBERS FOR FRIDAY, OR HE WAS WRONG SAYING KERRY HAD A 5 POINT LEAD ON MONDAY. IT IS MATHEMATICALLY IMPOSSIBLE FOR BOTH OF HIS STATEMENTS TO BE CORRECT!

Note, too, that Bush is not surging according to Zogby's numbers. Bush had a good day monday (52) then lower (47) on tuesday and even lower yesterday (45). Kerry ALSO went down these three days (49/46/43).

One possibility is Zogby's numbers are bogus. They don't seem to make sense with his statement about the 5 point kerry surge.

But if there is any sense in the numbers, both bush and kerry's numbers are lagging, and undecideds must be increasing. For what ever reason.

I think they are screwy!

[DemocracyInaction]

27. ollie---if you are correct on those 3 day declining numbers for both

then, as you pointed out, where are we to assume these votes are going?? Did all these people decide NOT to vote??? Have they all gone undecided (but I don't believe he has increased the undecided numbers at all). There is no accounting for them. I have a feeling Zogby is now reaching people who are uninterested and are probably not going to even go out and vote. Something is wacko here if your observations and numbers are correct.

[Marxdem]

24. what?

According to Zogby Kerry was down 1 yesterday.

[ALago1]

25. Wasn't Kerry's big day Sunday?

If so, it was dropped off for this poll and these results aren't really that bad at all. Bush 2 points below 50% is danger for a national poll.

I'm not discouraged by this one bit.

[DaveinMD]

26. Can people stop overreacting

to the results of a tracking poll. These daily fluctuations happen because of the small sample size of each day's track. They are also within the margin of error. These trackers are meaningless.