NYCliberal
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Thu Oct-28-04 07:15 AM
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Can we agree on a reputable poll or polls? |
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Lots of time wasted in this forum citing any poll that shows Kerry up, only to trash that same poll if it shows him down or losing ground.
Historically, what have been the most accurate polls, and waht do they say now?
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seabeyond
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Thu Oct-28-04 07:17 AM
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1. i dont do any of the polls, closer to election more off they are |
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they arent including youth, new registration or cell phone users, and seems to exclude minority. so no polls for me. none of them feel right. the ones for or against kerry. let them all go
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sonicx
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Thu Oct-28-04 07:19 AM
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2. use common sense. if a poll has either candidate leading OH or FL by |
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Edited on Thu Oct-28-04 07:19 AM by sonicx
more than...i dunno..5%, take it with a grain of salt.
don't sweat polls. they sucked in 2000.
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kaitykaity
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Thu Oct-28-04 07:19 AM
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3. Rasmussen, Zogby, and Harris |
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are some of the best around.
The real stinkers are the Gallup, RealClearPolitics, and that electoralvote.com thing (they use whatever poll is handy and do not discriminate).
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DemocratSinceBirth
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Thu Oct-28-04 07:24 AM
Response to Reply #3 |
6. Rasmussen Had Bush Up By Nine In Their Final Poll In 00 |
kaitykaity
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Thu Oct-28-04 09:21 AM
Response to Reply #6 |
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Is it evidence of a permanent bias, or is it a mistake of methodology since corrected?
Whatever.
:shrug:
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NDFan
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Thu Oct-28-04 07:20 AM
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Polls have been wrong.
In 1996, they were off, on average, nearly 5 points. In 2000.... well, you know what happened there.
No poll, when you think about it, is "reliable", especially in a close election, as 2000 proved.
They only get it right when a candidate wins by a landslide.
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DemocratSinceBirth
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Thu Oct-28-04 07:25 AM
Response to Reply #4 |
7. 1996 Was A Qualified Landslide And The Polls Got The Right Winner... |
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When a race is as close as this polls lose their predictive powers...
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NDFan
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Thu Oct-28-04 07:35 AM
Response to Reply #7 |
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Because 1996 was a 9 point landslide, the fact that the polls were off a few points didn't matter because it wasn't a close race.
"A few points" in this race means the presidency.
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DemocratSinceBirth
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Thu Oct-28-04 07:40 AM
Response to Reply #9 |
11. If You Look At The Polls Over The Last Fifty Or So Years |
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they do a nice job but in close races like 68, 76, and 80 the Margin Of Error is the fly in the ointment...In those years most pollsters were within the moe but some picked the wrong winner...
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Stuckinthebush
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Thu Oct-28-04 09:36 AM
Response to Reply #4 |
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Polls have been rather close.
Remember, polling is not an exact science. People seem to want polls to predict the actual breakdown of the vote. They can never do that because there will always be error in polling - hence, the MOE.
Polling is an amazing tool. If you see a poll that shows a tie or Kerry down by 2 or 3, then this is good news. Usually the methodology of polls is inadequate to get at the Democratic vote. Therefore, the Dem vote is usually underrepresented.
Don't expect polls to be right on the money. They can't be. Use them the way they are intended to be used...as a measure of the general attitude of voters at a single point in time based on a sample that is assumed to be representative of the population (but that can never be representative). In summary, a poll is a general snapshot that usually underrepresents Democrats.
Don't hate polls, hate the use of polls by the media.
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Mistahkleeen
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Thu Oct-28-04 07:23 AM
Response to Original message |
5. Everyday the results are different |
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The polls serve no other purpose, other than to confuse rookie voters.
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newyawker99
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Thu Oct-28-04 11:00 AM
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billyoc
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Thu Oct-28-04 07:33 AM
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Renew Deal
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Thu Oct-28-04 07:36 AM
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10. Election day is the most accurate. |
Orangepeel
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Thu Oct-28-04 07:40 AM
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12. even well done polls sometimes give you screwy results |
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A margin of error of +/- 3 means that 95% of the time, the sample results will be within 3% points of the population.
That means that 1 out of 20 times, even the most well done poll (which most of these are probably not) can give you off-the-wall results because of random error. Sometimes, you just happen to call a bunch of crazy people in one poll.
Everybody is polling so often, that a lot of the polls are going to be screwy, even if they were done perfectly.
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archineas
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Thu Oct-28-04 09:27 AM
Response to Reply #12 |
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that niether candidate is polling outside the margin of error. the poll results aren't even statistically significant until you have consistent polling outside the MOE.
the only conclusion that i would come up with, as a mathematician and if this data were my own, is that there is no sufficient information to offer a prediction at this stage, simply by the polling numbers.
i would, however, LOVE to see the internal polling done by both campaigns!
j
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Marxdem
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Thu Oct-28-04 09:29 AM
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15. Zogby has been the most accurate |
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None of the polls were as close as Zogby in 2000. This election is going to be close, theres no hiding that.
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DemocratSinceBirth
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Thu Oct-28-04 09:34 AM
Response to Reply #15 |
16. He Was The Least Accurate In 2002 |
Marxdem
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Thu Oct-28-04 09:39 AM
Response to Reply #16 |
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Presidential elections are easier to poll then non-presidential elections. Many people polled don't show up to vote in non presidential elections.
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cubsfan forever
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Thu Oct-28-04 09:38 AM
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Killarney
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Thu Oct-28-04 09:41 AM
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20. I think Zogby is as good as you'll get, but what matters |
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much more than polls is turnout and we don't yet know that. :)
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Marxdem
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Thu Oct-28-04 09:43 AM
Response to Reply #20 |
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Thats what I have been saying right along.
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