10/28 Democracy Corps Poll - Kerry 49% Bush 46%

[unfrigginreal]

Q.9 Generally speaking, do you think that things in this country are going in the right direction, or do you
feel things have gotten pretty seriously off on the wrong track?
Total
Right direction.............................. 43
Wrong track.................................. 52
(Don't know/refused).......................... 5
Right - Wrong.................................-9


Q.10 Do you approve or disapprove of the way George Bush is handling his job as president?
Total
Strongly approve ............................ 37
Somewhat approve............................. 13
Somewhat disapprove .......................... 8
Strongly disapprove ......................... 40
(Don't know/Refused) ......................... 2
Total approve................................ 50
Total disapprove............................. 48
Approve - disapprove.......................... 2


Q.23 (ASKED 3-WAY WHERE NADER ON BALLOT AND 2-WAY OTHERWISE) Thinking about
the elections in November, if the election for president were held today and the candidates were
Republican George Bush and the Democrat John Kerry -- for whom would you vote -- George Bush or
John Kerry?
Total
John Kerry................................... 47
Lean John Kerry............................... 2
George Bush.................................. 45
Lean George Bush.............................. 1
Ralph Nader .................................. 1
Lean Ralph Nader .............................
(Other)....................................... 1
Lean (Other) .................................
(Undecided)................................... 1
(Refused) .................................... 1
(Already Voted Refused) ...................... 1
Total John Kerry............................. 49
Total George Bush............................ 46
Total Ralph Nader............................. 1
Total (Other)................................. 1
Total (Undecided/Refused) .................... 2
John Kerry - George Bush .............................................. 3


Q.91 Generally speaking, do you think of yourself as a Democrat, a Republican or what?
Total
Strong Democrat ............................. 27
Weak Democrat................................ 12
Independent-lean Democrat .............................................. 9
Independent .................................. 5
Independent-lean Republican................... 9
Weak Republican ............................. 12
Strong Republican............................ 26
(Don't know/Refused).......................... 1



And in the ' I'm not sure what to make of it ' category:


Q.25 Now, let me ask you something else. You said earlier that you already voted in the election.
As you know, the candidates were Republican George W. Bush and Democrat John Kerry. For whom did
you vote, Republican George Bush or Democrat John Kerry?
Total
John Kerry................................... 34
George Bush.................................. 49
Ralph Nader ...................................-
(Other)........................................-
(Refused).................................... 18
John Kerry - George Bush ....................-15

Already voted made up 8% of the poll.

http://www.democracycorps.com/reports/surveys/Democracy_Corps_October_26-27_2004_Survey.pdf

[swag]

1. Wow, very similar to the Economist poll!

http://www.economist.com/media/pdf/yougovS.pdf

[DemocratSinceBirth]

2. This Is Good New...

All these polls can make your head spin...

Some of the internals in the Economist poll seem a bit rosey...


Stan Greenberg is a brilliant pollster and analyst but he's a Dem....


All in all as long as we are down a point or two in the proprietary polls I think we will win..

[swag]

3. And then there's yesterday's Harris: Kerry 48, Bush 47

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000087&sid=aHliC9jt.fI4&refer=top_world_news

Bush and Kerry Are Statistically Tied in Nationwide Harris Poll
Oct. 27 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. President George W. Bush and Democratic Senator John Kerry are statistically tied nationwide in an online Harris Poll, erasing an advantage for Bush in the same election poll of a week ago.

Kerry has a 48 percent to 47 percent advantage in the survey of 2,493 likely voters conducted Oct. 21-25, within the margin of error of 2 percentage points. In a Harris poll published Oct. 20, Bush led by 2 percentage points among respondents who said they were ``absolutely'' going to vote and led by 8 points among those who also voted in the 2000 election.

Kerry's one-point advantage in the latest poll is the same using either definition of likely voters. Bush, 58, and Kerry, 60, are tied in Florida, Pennsylvania and Ohio, according to polls released yesterday by American Research Group. These three states together have 68 of the 270 electoral votes needed to win, and both campaigns say results in any one may tip the race.

. . .more

[DemocratSinceBirth]

4. The Harris Poll Is An Online Poll

I hope the AP poll has us up...


I think it come out today...

[unfrigginreal]

6. What do you make of the 18% that already voted but refused to say who?

I'm leaning toward Republicans that were uncomfortable saying that they voted Kerry.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

7. Don't Know...

Here's how I see it...


There are unitentional biases built into all these polls most of them a function of what the pollster thinks the electorate will look like...

Let me give you a quick example.. My state , Florida, is fourteen percent African American...

Do I assume the electorate will mirror their percentage of the population or will they not show up at the polls in numbers that reflect their actual percentage of the population..

That is the great unknown...


So polls like DemCorp , yougov are the best case and Gallup being the worst case...


I think the truth is in between with a small advantage for our side...

[helpisontheway]

5. Love the horserace

numbers but don't like many of the internals. I tell you these people must be living on another planet. Kerry more negative with his campaigning? Bush talks more about issues? BULL! UGHHHHHHHHHHH!