Article is called "Playing the Numbers, the Poll Bowl." A lot of it is the usual yak and yammer about polling, but if you scroll south to where it says "Can you hear me now? Um, no," it gets interesting.
From the article:
For one thing you can blame modern technology. Polling is an "Industrial Age strategy that hasn't woken up to Information Age reality," said John P Avlon, author of "Independent Nation: How the Vital Center is Changing American Politics."
The big obstacle is cellular telephones, especially as they become so advanced that people abandon landline phones, Avlon said in an interview with MSNBC TV.
"Pollsters use landline call sheets, the same way they've done for the past 20 years," he said. "Cell phone-only homes aren't listed. They can't be accessed."
+snip+
Good news for Kerry?
Avlon contended that those missed voters represent a potentially large "hidden vote" for Kerry.
"We're seeing a drift in the demographic as we understand it," he said.
People who use only cell phones and those who work evenings and weekends tend to be younger and to live in urban areas. "As a result, these folks are off the rolls, they're off the charts, they're not being called, and they're not being counted."
Avlon noted that "young voters give Kerry an edge...and urban voters tend to vote Democratic traditionally. This is a group that could really swing the election and cause an election surprise."
"I think with an election this close, every little bit counts, and this is more than a little bit," he said. "This is millions of voters - it could easily cause an Election Day surprise."
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6338051/
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