18 Battleground State analysis...Great news (310-228)

[Perky]

I readily confess that I am a nut for data. I am obsessed with the data which shows up each morning on the electoral-vote.com site.

Here is my take:

I define a Battleground as any stat which is within 6 percentage points

Bush has Maxed out in 18 Battleground states.He is not consistently topping the 50% magic threshold which an incumbent has to have in any of the states.

Kerry has no Great momentum but given the MOEs and the undecided he has an absolute chance.

What I am seeing is the following

I take the last 10 polls in each state and aggregate the data across all 18 BGs. I am basically averaging the last 180 polls and I see Bush sliding down a bit in each daily snapshot. While Kerry is bumping up ever so slightly.

Here is what the snapshot looks likes today:

K B N U Dif
Oregon 50.5 44.6 1 4 5.9
New Jersey 47.4 42.4 1 9 5.0
Michigan 49.8 44.9 0 5 4.9
Maine 47.1 43.4 1 8 3.7
Pennsylvania 49.5 45.9 0 5 3.6
New Hampshire 48.0 45.2 1 6 2.8
New Mexico 45.7 47.4 1 6 1.7
Minnesota 46.1 46.0 1 7 0.1
Iowa 46.7 46.6 1 6 0.1
Florida 46.8 47.8 0 5 1.0
Ohio 46.3 47.2 0 7 0.9
Wisconsin 46.3 47.6 1 5 1.3
Colorado 47.1 48.1 2 8 1.0
---------------------------------------------------------------
Nevada 44.6 49.5 1 5 4.9
West Virginia 43.5 48.9 1 7 5.4
Missouri 45.6 49.8 0 4 4.2
Arkansas 45.1 49.8 0 5 4.7
Virginia 44.6 50.0 0 5 5.4

Because the undecided historically break 6 to 4 for the challenger. I would seem that Statistically when Factoring in the Undecideds Kerry is actually ahead and likely to win in all but NV, WV, MO, AR and VA.

And the thing is each day those that are hyper-competitive are trending to dead heats day by day and that like means Kerry wins in 13 out of these 18

Bottom line: that is 156 out of 196 electoral votes. Add that to the 164 EVs in the Blue States and you get 310 to 228 win for Kerry.


Ballgame.

[Name removed]

1. Deleted message

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[Perky]

2. If I had had Bad news

I would have been to depressed to check the electoral-vote.com site any more,

[milkyway]

3. You're smarter than the people at electoral-vote.com. They just count

the lastest poll of each state. One state poll is not nearly enough to establish anything (i.e., New Jersey is tied according to Quinnepaq--yeah, right. If you look closer at the numbers, Kerry should win NJ by 10 pts.) Your averaging multiple state polls is much more accurate.

[Perky]

10. the last ten polls method

only works when they strat bunching in the last few weeks,.


the advantage is that even though they still include Strategic Vision (borderline push poll) and Gallup which apparently does not know how to do state polling ... it gets balanced

[dpakman91]

4. let's hope

i certainly HOPE you're right, but i think, at least right now, it's more like this:

www.heartheissues.com

[Lugnut]

5. I caught this in a local newspaper article

About the John Edwards rally in Wilkes-Barre on Tuesday. A local educator was chosen to introduce Sen. Edwards. She related that while she was backstage waiting to go on Tony Podesta told her in conversation that their polls show Kerry/Edwards up 4 in PA and up 5 in Florida. :shrug:

[theboss]

6. I think you are wrong on Florida and Wisconsin

(I also think your definition of "battleground" is a bit broad, but that's neither here nor there).

The rest makes sense though.

[Perky]

9. I personallythink Florida and Wisconsin lookk pretty good

THe last ten polls for Florida.
Date K B N U
27-Oct 0 46 48 0 6
26-Oct 2 48 48 0 4
26-Oct 1 41 49 2 8
26-Oct 0 45 49 0 6
25-Oct 2 49 46 0 5
25-Oct 1 48 48 0 4
25-Oct 0 47 48 0 5
24-Oct 4 50 48 0 2
24-Oct 3 48 48 0 4
24-Oct 2 46 46 0 8


The last ten for Wisconsin

Date K B N U
27-Oct 0 50 46 0 4
26-Oct 0 48 46 0 6
25-Oct 0 46 48 0 6
24-Oct 1 45 49 0 6
24-Oct 0 45 48 0 7
19-Oct 3 47 47 2 4
19-Oct 2 43 51 3 3
19-Oct 1 47 49 0 4
19-Oct 0 47 47 1 5
18-Oct 1 45 45 1 9

[TexasSissy]

7. You left out Hawaii, which is either tied or * slight lead, depending

on which survey you use.

[Perky]

8. Actually I do not consider Hawaii a battlegound

I take the average of the last ten polls and there has been very little polling in the state.

It might be competitive but most observers think the polling sat in both is flawed. Kerry is spenind as small ad buy but the GOP is not.