I'm confused about today's Zogby tracking poll

[lancdem]

It has Bush up 48-46. Yet Zogby said both candidates were tied yesterday, and the day before Kerry was up 5. That means Bush had to be up 11 points on Monday in order to end up 2 points up today.

I can't believe Bush was up 11 on Monday. That's too much of an outlier for Zogby.

(BTW, I do think the polls are underestimating Kerry's support, but I was just curious about this.)

[NewYorkerfromMass]

1. 3 day average

just means Bush was up 7 in one day. But I don't know how it's weighted.

[GR]

2. I Think There Is Some Weighting Which Accounts For The Discrepancies...

That's probably his trade secret....They do try to weight for demographics I think...But tomorrow could be good...I'm hoping...

[Beetwasher]

3. I Wouldn't Worry About It

Zogby's numbers have them close enough to be considered a dead heat. Kerry wins a dead heat handily w/ turnout.

Listen, I like Zogby, but it's abundantly clear to me that there are serious problems with the samples of EVERY SINGLE POLLSTER, including Zogby. Large segments of the population that will be voting for Kerry are not being represented in ANY of the polls.

Once Kerry wins one of the things that will need to be done is pointing out the discrepancy between the polls and the final numbers and DOING something about. That's a job for us on DU to undertake as one of our new responsibilities once Kerry is elected.

[TNOE]

4. Anybody else's system crash taking their latest poll?

I found that odd. Right before I was finished with about 85% of survey, boom, went down and came up page can't be found. Wonder how many times that happened with Kerry supporters?

[Lugnut]

8. Yep!

I tried to do their poll yesterday and the same thing happend. I got through 85% of it and it was gone.

[DaveinMD]

5. wild fluctuations

are common in tracking polls. They only sample 300 per day. That's a major reason they should be taken with a huge grain of salts.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

10. The One Day MOE is over 10%

nt

[Village Idiot]

6. LA Times has Kerry by 4 - never fear!!!!

[lancdem]

7. Is that a tracking poll?

Do you have a link?

[ollie3]

9. bush did not make a gain....

zogby's numbers indicate two things: 1) both kerry and bush went down the past couple of days, 2) kerry did not have a 5 point lead on monday as claimed by zogby. I am basing this on the one day numbers zogby gave for friday and saturday, and extrapolated each day. Of course, it is also possible that the numbers he gave us for fri/sat were wrong too. But in any case, there is no evidence of a bush surge here!