Analysis Of Major National Polls By Dr. Abramowitz...

[DemocratSinceBirth]

I didn't know the Economist Poll was a robopoll...

Analysis of Major National Polls
By Alan Abramowitz

Here's where the presidential race stands right now based on an analysis of the most recent national polls conducted by 10 leading polling organizations. For this analysis I have excluded all partisan polls, internet polls, and robo-dial polls. That leaves out Democracy Corps, Harris, Economist/YouGov, and Rasmussen. Some of these polls, especially Democracy Corps, are in my opinion very reputable, but for the sake of fairness I'm excluding them. Included in the analysis are the following polls: Gallup, CBS/New York Times, NBC/Wall Street Journal, ABC/Washington Post, Zogby, Time, Newsweek, Pew, AP/Ipsos, and LA Times. All of these polls except Zogby report results for registered as well as likely voters.

Among likely voters, Bush was leading in 5 polls, Kerry in 2, and 3 were tied. The average level of support for the candidates was Bush 48.2, Kerry 47.0, Nader 1.3.

Among registered voters, Bush was leading in 3 polls, Kerry in 2, and 4 were tied. The average level of support for the candidates was Bush 47.0, Kerry 46.0, Nader 1.9.

It is clear from these results that heading into the final weekend of the campaign, the presidential race right now is extremely close. George Bush appears to hold a very slight lead nationally, but his support remains below the 50 percent level that is generally considered necessary for an incumbent since undecided voters generally break toward the challenger by a wide margin.

[jmaier]

1. Pretty optimistic

I guardedly optimistic with the polls this close nationally. I'd feel a bit better if this premise "undecided voters generally break for the challenger" premise was backed up by a study referencing historical data. It seems to be the CW, but is there solid substance to this belief?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

2. Try This

http://www.mydd.com/story/2004/10/4/115016/984