A Consumer's Guide to the Polls

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The latest polls in the presidential race show George W. Bush ahead. Or John Kerry ahead. Or a tie. Or Bush gaining. Or Kerry gaining. Take your pick.

Why do the polls disagree so much? And which ones should you buy?

That would be easier to decide if you could buy polls the way you buy canned food or cereal, with all the ingredients disclosed on a label. But pollsters don't package their products that way. Consequently, most of us believe, mistakenly, that a poll is a simple tabulation of a random sample of voters. In reality, polls are full of additives and preservatives, subtractions and selective multiplications, none of which are generally published. The reason many polls consistently differ from others is that their hidden ingredients differ. Here's a guide to those ingredients, poll by poll. ...

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