The Upper Midwest

[PaDem]

Kerry needs to win 2 of the 3 Upper MW states that are in play (Minn, Wisky and Iowa). Reportedly an NPR poll today in Minnesota shows Bush with a 3 pt lead there. Can anyone validate this (I got it second hand)? Of those three states Minnesota is the one I would expect to be most likely to go Blue. By winning two of those states Kerry will have effectively made this a two state election (OH and FLA). He'd need to win one of them. Losing more than one of those states in the Upper Midwest means Kerry has to turn either Colorado or Arkansas Blue or win both FLA and OH. Possible, but I'd rather avoid that scenario all together. What are peoples thoughts on the Upper Midwest?

[MsAnthropy]

1. He WILL win Minnesota

All those polls are bogus.

[PaDem]

2. I might add........

that I was told Nader is polling at around 5% in Minnesota as well. ARG polls out today have him polling at 4% in WI and IA. We really do need to get the vote out.

[bornskeptic]

4. You read that wrong.

In the ARG polls Nader is 1% in Wisconsin and Iowa. Undecideds are 4%.

http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/

[PaDem]

6. Thank you, my error......

numbers all bunched together, me being so eager to blast Nader etc. Can't wait for November 3rd.

[DuaneBidoux]

7. I think you might want to look again at the ARG polls

I saw them on another thread and it was Nader 1% and Undecideds 4% but the columns were off - you had to count over to be sure.

[winga222]

3. All Seems to Hinge on Iowa

I agree completely with PaDem. I'm working the GOTV for 4 straight days in OH and feel confident we can deliver. I think PA is also in the bag, or as much as any "close" state can be. Before, CW said that whoever got 2 out of 3 from OH/PA/FL would win. Now I think it's 2 out of 3 for MN/WI/IA. I feel good about MN, bad about WI, and think it all comes down to Iowa. Iowans, how is it looking? I'd love to hear something reassuring.

[montana500]

5. latest Min poll has Kerry up 7 nm

nm