Must Read!The Economist Poll: Kerry 49, Bush 45, Nader 1.Very significant!

[TruthIsAll]

http://www.economist.com/

First, this is a very consistent, reputable weekly poll. Kerry led by 48-46 in it last week.

They poll close to 3000, so the poll has a 2.0% MOE. Very tight.

In a 2-party split, 49-45 equates to Kerry 52.1%, Bush 47.9%.

THIS IS WHAT'S KEY:

The 95% confidence interval for Kerry is (50.1%, 54.1%).
That means he can expect to get between 50.1% and 54.1%of the vote 19 out of 20 times. But there is a 2.50% probability that he will get OVER 54.1%.

So, if you believe The Economist, and I do, Kerry has a 95% + 2.5% = 97.5% probability of exceeding 50.1% of the 2-party vote; that is, he will get more votes than Bush.

The Election Model Monte Carlo simulation (based on state polling), gives Kerry a 99% probability of getting more than 270 electoral votes. I'll update the model this evening and include the latest polls.

http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/

Kerry has the Big MO!

? TOAST.

[milkyway]

1. Great! I didn't know they polled so many, almost 3x what other pollsters

do. To bad they don't get much media attention.

KERRY IN A LANDSLIDE. FIVE MORE DAYS.

[Anarcho-Socialist]

2. If it's the case come election day, Kerry will get over 50% of vote

which will mean he can at least claim a mandate.

[TruthIsAll]

4. If you believe the poll, Kerry will get 52-53%, Bush 46-47%

Splitting the difference:
Kerry 52.5
Bush 46.5
Other 1.0

[ROH]

6. How would that work out in states?

If the percentages are:
Kerry 52.5%
Bush 46.5%
Other 1.0%

could someone work out approximately which states would go over to Kerry?

Tennessee? Arkansas? Arizona? Virginia? Several more?

[Anarcho-Socialist]

9. My guess is that AR, AZ, CO, FL, OH, MO, NH, NV, WV would go to Kerry

based on those percentages. LA, TN, VA, NC will be too close to call.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

3. agree on all points. eom

[demosincebirth]

5. If your predictions turn out right. and I think they will...

I'll send you a couple of bottles of some good Napa Valley wine.

[shawmut]

7. kick

:kick:

[ciaobox]

8. Kerry by a LANDSLIDE

[tritsofme]

20. MS and GA?

The rest could be possible...

[Octafish]

10. It's starting, TruthIsAll! Can you feel it?

The ground is starting to move.



More and more, the People know the unelected and vile turd occupying the People's house is a lying, thieving, murdering crook.

[TruthIsAll]

14. Payback to the BFEE! Let the trials begin for 40 years of Treason.

.

[TruthIsAll]

11. Another way to look at it: Bush is stuck in a 43-47 MOE range

Jeez, the chimp may not even pull 46%, if Kerry sweeps the undecided. He may even go lower, if soft Bush support continues to peel away to Kerry.

Could Kerry win this thing by 8-10%?

[msongs]

13. could Jeb Bush steal all the dems votes in FL? might not matter if

Mr. kerry can slam home a buncha other states not expected to go for Kerry. My all that repub money wasted.

Msongs
Riverside CA

[deadparrot]

12. How accurate was this poll in the past?

[TruthIsAll]

16. I have no idea. But the their methodogy and sampling is top-notch.

This is not a Bush shill pretending to be unbiased.

These are professionals (read their magazine) with their heads on straight.

The KNOW the damage Bushco has done and take a pragmatic world view. This is a conservative jewel in the classic sense.

[deadparrot]

17. Hope you're right.

[DaveinMD]

15. was this poll

online or a phone poll.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

18. online (nt)

[TruthIsAll]

19. Check their site. n/t

tia

[DemocracyInaction]

21. For you who know polling

..how much faith can be put in an on line poll?? 99.999% of the public doesn't know it exists. Those who do are politically junkies with an agenda. Sorry, I'd love to bite but I can't--anymore than I can bite into things like Gallup and their overweighted repbulican sample when the past turnout doesn't dictate it. The truth is somewhere out there and I doubt if any of these people are more than 10% one way or the other close. Junkies take on line polls and caller ID and tired people who hang up make phone calling a joke, too. There's only one and ONLY ONE way to maybe, hopefully win this thing and it's getting physically out there and turning out the vote. Otherwise you will spend Nov. 3rd going through the stats trying to explain WHY WE LOST!!!

[tritsofme]

22. Isn't this an online poll?

I don't know how repuatable they are, I don't think they have ever done polling in the US.

I'm very wary of this polls methodology.

[TruthIsAll]

23. And when Zogby shows the same numbers...

toast