Sean's Electoral College Map Projection Part III.

[Sean Reynolds]

I update this thing every now and then to current polls AND trends of a candidate. In each map I've done (3) Kerry has won, but it seems he's expanding his lead on Bush. I'm thinking that my next map may trend Wisconsin toward Kerry, and possibly Colorado and Arkansas too.

The first version of the map I posted a few weeks ago is basically the exact same map I've posted today. The second version I gave Nevada back to Bush as well as placed Florida as too close to call. In this version I put Nevada back to Kerry, Florida to Kerry and Wisconsin to Bush.

I'm not going to put Hawaii in Bush's camp, because those two polls were flawed. The first one over sampled Republicans by a strong margin, the second poll only researched ONE island -- it would be like me polling Austin, Texas and using that sample as proof Kerry was going to win Texas.

So this is my THIRD map, less than one week before the election. I may do two more maps before the election...but I WILL do one final map no matter what a few days before the election (Probably Sunday).

[newsguyatl]

1. mine is the exact same, except

i have kerry winning wisconsin, losing iowa... err, and actually losing nv as well.

[Wickerman]

2. Good analysis

Do you think WV or WI deserve consideration as at least Up for Grabs?

Curious, I hear that on occassion.

[Sean Reynolds]

6. I think Wisconsin is 50-50 right now...WV on the other hand, Bush weak.

I wouldn't expect Kerry to take WV, however it may surprise. Wisconsin Kerry has a good shot at it, at least just as good of a shot as Bush does.

[PROGRESSIVE1]

3. My map is similar. I have Kerry taking Arkansas and Wisconsin is...

too close to call. Those 10 votes might have to be recounted.

[Zuni]

4. I have it different

losing nevada, losing iowa, winning wisconsin
Florida is a toss up (Bush's cheating gives him slight advantage)
Ohio is Kerry.

[Cozmosis]

5. Good map

I remove Nevada and add WI, personally.

[Sean Reynolds]

9. Maybe....but the trend is going toward Kerry.

That's why I gave it to him (Nevada).

[Liberalboy]

7. Kerry will win Colorado! eom

[Walt Starr]

8. I'm currently very similar to you with these exceptions

I based it upon TIA's analysis. Your map except I give Nevada and Iowa to Bush and I give Ohio to Kerry for a final count of Kerry 303 bush 235.

[Stuckinthebush]

10. I think we'll take Wisconsin and Colorado

Add those to the mix and what do you get?

[Sean Reynolds]

11. A landslide....:-D

[newsguyatl]

12. actually in my scenario as well

if you give wisonsin to kerry, bush can still win all these PLUS, NV, Iowa, FL AND NM and kerry still wins. 272/266