at the end of yesterday 11% already voted?

[lil-petunia]

But that is a deceiving number.
1) Voter registrations are at an all time high. More new voters on the rolls today than ever in history. at least 14% higher than 2000.
2) that means 11% of ALL current registrations, as described above.
3) last presidential election only 43-8% of registered voters actually voted, depending on your state. 2002 was a bit lower, between 40-46%.

let's assume that in 2000 we had 100,000,000 registered voters, and about 45,000,000 voted in 2000, total. 14% more registrations means 114,000,000 voters on the rolls as of now. ( I simplified the numbers for easier math)


If 11% voted by yesterday, that means 12,540,000 have already voted, more than a quarter of ALL voters last time around. If that trend continues through today, tomorrow, saturday and Monday, and considering that on election day, typically 3 times as many vote as those who go early or vote absentee, we are looking at a turn out rate of 70% or higher. That takes into account a much higher number of registered voters, too.


That, folks is wonderful news. Happy people, content with the status quo, are more likely to stay home. Angry people, wanting a change, are more likely to register for the first time, vote early, and vote to toss the bums out.

[nixonwasbetterthanW]

1. your 100 million figure for RVs is wrong

The total number of votes, not registrations, was about 106 million in 2000.

Gore and Bush each got more than 50 million.

[lil-petunia]

2. lazy math, that is why I used that figure

still at this rate, we are talking a HUGE turnout at or near 70%.

[bullimiami]

3. right. i was going to point that out. also

the percentage usually quoted is percentage compared to ELIGIBLE voters.

the percentage of registered voters that acutally votes is in the 70-80% range.

i think in 2000 dems got out in the mid 70s and pugs got out in the mid 80s.

i think the pugs peaked out. we should beat them in the percentage this time. we already had bigger numbers and have registered a lot more new voters.
new voters dont register just to sit home either, they will turn out in high numbers.

am i wrong? i just pulled this from memory without looking it up.

[InternalDialogue]

4. Regardless of the math

When was the last time lines snaked into the streets for early voting? It used to be the way my parents would avoid the crowds -- now it's busy like election day all week.

BTW, are polling places open Saturday? State decisions? If they are, I've got to think the numbers are only going to build as people get their ballots in over the weekend -- trying to beat Tuesday's rush.

Do you smell that? That's what momentum smells like.

[lil-petunia]

5. smells good.

What's for dessert?

[lil-petunia]

6. Just heard on local Public News

Cook County (chicago) expects more than 77% of registered voters to turn out, perhaps as high as 80%.

Wow. Even in the good old days of the First Mayor Richard M. Daley they never got that high a percentage - and they searched the graveyards for voters back then!