Washington Post 10/28 Tracking Poll Kerry 48% Bush 49% Nader 1%

[TrueAmerican]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/elections/2004/charting.html

stat tie, Kerry will win.

[Zynx]

1. This is just normal polling variance.

[sonicx]

2. not bad. still a tie

[Mojambo]

Bush needs to be up by at least 4 by Monday

It's not gonna happen.

Kerry is close to locking this thing down guys.

[DeminDC]

6. I don't get the logic of why Bush needs to be ahead by 4%

Is this based on some historical thing? If so, please explain.

I hope it doesn't rest on the idea of newly registered voters because I only expect a 1% bump from that given how some new registrations are Repubican, and we cannot necessarily count on new registrees to turn out.

[Green Mountain Dem]

9. Are you freaken..

for real ???

[DemocratSinceBirth]

22. I Think It's Somewhere Between One And Four

Give him a break...


probably the two to three Gore was behind...

[lancdem]

10. Rove said he needs to be up 4 percent going into the election

because of how undecideds break for the challenger.

[MallRat]

11. Incumbents get what they poll.

As a rule of thumb, undecideds tip overwhelmingly (about 60-40, even 65-35) into the challenger's column.

If Kerry and Bush are tied in the polls, Kerry wins. Bush has yet to break and hold above 50% with any kind of consistency.

-MR

[Nederland]

14. I heard that wasn't true...

The rule about challengers picking up undecideds that is.

http://myelectionanalysis.blogspot.com/2004/09/whither-undecideds.html

[lancdem]

29. Um, sorry to disappoint you, but it is

But if you're looking for reasons to think they'll go to Bush, be my guest.

[DemPopulist]

32. Conservative blog

Which takes the typical conservative tact of using slight-of-hand to avoid answering arguments backed by very obvious facts. The argument: undecideds break to the challenger at the end of a presidential race. Conservative response: not true, because some incumbents have finished higher on Election Day than they were polling in the summer. :wtf:

Post-1940s (when polling was in its infancy) incumbent presidents just haven't improved on their final standings very much: link

[Nederland]

33. Confused

Did you read the response from DailyKos?

[DemPopulist]

35. What are you referring to?

[Name removed]

34. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[sonicx]

12. incumbents either win big...

or lose big

well ok...this year might be different.

[michigandem2]

15. hmmm...

well I think that based on history...if by monday...bush is at 48% he will rarely spike from there..hence meaning a big loss...

[okieinpain]

30. not trying to be racist, but I would bet good money that the

majority of those being polled are whites. and if bush is splitting the whites with kerry, I can gurantee you that kerry will get the majority of the miniority vote. hence bush's ass is in trouble, it kerry starts to poll ahead of bush in the next couple of days, it will be kerry in a landslide.

remember after the last debate, the pundits were saying that bush would not command center stage, because he's the president. well he's been center stage all right, but it hasn't been good news.

[Spirochete]

36. The new registers

are exactly the people you CAN count on. Anyone that registers this close to the election is doing it specifically to vote in this election. And I think it will be more than 1% net gain, even with the new Repub registers.

[humanbeing]

39. The logic is based on history:

In the last 20-30 years, almost ALL incumbents get about the same level of support in the election as they do in the final poll, while, conversely, the challenger gets at LEAST his final poll numbers, but almost always more.

In other words, undecided voters end up going for the challenger by about a 60%-40% split.

(I'm not at all an expert, I'm just regurgitating what I've read on more well informed people's sites)

[michigandem2]

3. fine by me...

[cubsfan forever]

4. WaPo always makes it look better for Bunnypants

than reality. Yup, Kerry wins.

Professor 2

[dennis4868]

5. Crap!

Rassmussen and the WP had Kerry ahead and now that lead is gone.....these polls drive me crazy! What is going on here?

[mvd]

7. Rasmussen has earned no respect.. WP has been volatile

I think the great early voting numbers trump any polls. And our internal numbers are still good according to Skinner's thread.

[lancdem]

18. Do you have a link to that thread?

I'd like to read it.

[mvd]

19. Here

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x1200256

[lancdem]

26. Thank you!

[sonicx]

8. polls do that. no worries

ABC had bush up 3 over gore in the final 2000 poll.

[lancdem]

13. The tracking polls have Bush up 1-3 points

and the nontracking polls (Democracy Corps, Economist) have Kerry up 3-4 points.

Looks good to me.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

21. The Economist Is An Online Poll...

I was disappointed to learn that...

[lancdem]

31. Oh well

Democracy Corps isn't, at least.

[Awsi Dooger]

16. We need Bush at 48% or lower to be comfortable

I agree with Charlie Cook's assessment of a week or so ago. As the incumbent, Bush at 48% in a poll consensus is a loser. At 49% he is marginal. At 50% he is a winner.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

23. you and charlie are right (nt)

[TexasSissy]

The nat'l head to head polls don't mean much in this election.

It's the battleground states and the projected EVs that count. And *'s job approval rating.

[WI_DEM]

17. Bush's lead might be higher tomorrow since Kerry's strong

Monday will fall off.

[Goldmund]

20. It won't

This is a 4-day tracking poll.

Kerry's strongest days were Saturday and Sunday.

[WI_DEM]

24. ok,

hope you are correct.

[Goldmund]

28. I'm not sure you should "hope"

...since it doesn't say anything one way or the other. Tomorrow the Sunday drops off, and that was one of the two strongest days for Kerry. And tonight comes in -- we'll basically know tomorrow if he did better tonight than on Sunday, when I know he did really well. (I don't have a link, but it was a WaPo person saying that Saturday and Sunday were the best days for Kerry since the poll started on Oct. 1st)

[Goldmund]

27. self-deleted...

replied to the wrong post...

[Bush was AWOL]

25. Last week on this day in this poll: Bush 51 Kerry 45

Kerry cut off 5 points in a week.

[melody]

37. given the youth vote, new vote and cell phoners

To say nothing of the anger of the Democratic base, Bush is toast.

That's why he's starting to pout. Poor little Shrubber.

[melody]

38. given the youth vote, new vote and cell phoners

To say nothing of the anger of the Democratic base, Bush is toast.

That's why he's starting to pout. Poor little Shrubber.