HOW DO OUR SENATE RACES LOOK?

[BayCityProgressive]

I have heard we are falling behind in the senate races? Is this true? Kerry and Bush seem to be neck and neck. If by some nightmare Bush is re-elected I couldnt stand to see all three branches GOP.

[terrya]

1. I think they look good,

Illinois is a done deal. I think we'll win Alaska, Kentucky and Colorado. We'll hang on to North Carolina.

[NYCliberal]

2. Half and half

Agree most of prior post (IL, of course), but will likely lose SD (Daschle), NC (Bowles) and LA

[Democrat 4 Ever]

4. The Senate race in Kentucky got even wackier today.

Bunning is about half a bubble off plumb - McConnell and the rest of the rethugs in the state are tap dancing as fast as they can to prop him up (when half the time he doesn't know where he is) and get him re-elected. There is no doubt in my mind at all that once the election is over, he will retire and the rethug governor will appoint another rethug to continue the madness. The man has no business being out alone, much less in the senate.

Yesterday and today, state rethug leaders have joined into the smear of his opponent - Dr. Dan Mongarido. Today the leader of the Senate, David Williams, called Dr. Dan "limp wrist" to imply he is gay, the leader of the House, Elizabeth Tori called Dr. Dan a "Girly Boy." They are onto a theme of Mongarido is gay so he must be bad. Bunning claims to be above the fray but they are saying these things with the dolt standing right next to them. This is after Bunning, earlier in the campaign, said that Dr. Dan could be a Muslin because of his looks - implying he thought he is a terrorist.

It is getting really nasty and just proves they will do anything to get Bunning re-elected. They are scared to death they are going to lose the majority.

[elperromagico]

12. "Half a bubble off plumb... "

I like that. I will have to co-opt it. :D

[IronLionZion]

6. if LA has a runoff, we'll get it

the undecideds are trying to decide which of the 3 dems to vote for in the non-partisan election. the runoff will be on a Saturday so more working people will turn out

[iwantmycountryback]

11. Why do you say Daschle and Bowles would "likely" lose?

As far as I can tell both are in very tight races and we're gonna have to wait til Tuesday to find out who wins. This is an especially questionable post coming from someone with only 21 points.

[JohnnyCougar]

18. I object!

NC is a dead heat. I think GOTV efforts there will help Bowles, and we will keep that seat. I think we will keep SD, too. Thune's campaign is having ethics troubles right now, and South Dakotans don't want to lose their pork from Daschle. LA is going Dem no matter what. Vitter has to get above 50% there to win, and he isn't close. The Dems will win the runoff.

We are likely to lose South Carolina and Georgia, although Tennenbaum in SC could well put off an upset if certified Rethuglican brute Jum DeMint opens his mouth more often.

I predict we will pick up AK, OK, IL, CO for sure, and maybe Kentucky. We will keep FL, SD and NC. SC could go either way. And Hoeffel is narrowing the gap in PA, although it's a long shot. I predict we get 50 seats plus Jeffords at the least!

[liberalpragmatist]

19. Unfortunately, Vitter IS close

It is imperative this goes to a runoff. The Dems could beat him if it did, but he's polling in the high 40s and his numbers are rising.

If we're not careful, Vitter could wind up Senator-elect on Nov. 3 by having crossed the 50% threshold.

[JohnnyCougar]

20. No poll has shown him over 47%

and that was the highest. Some are as low as 44. It's possible he wins, but I still doubt it.

[demokatgurrl]

3. Mongiardo has a shot, please go to his web site

drdan2004.com and donate some money. It's a dead heat against a crazy deadbeat. He has a real shot, he didn't not so long ago but his opponent self destructed.

Here in PA the Dem is a long shot, which is too bad because he is a real good man. Obama of course is a lock. Boxer is a lock. I don't think it's looking too good in NC- the repub scandal machine has been really working hard. Alaska? It was very close last time I looked.

[Thrill]

5. Bowles isn't going to lose

[NYCliberal]

9. That's what I thought in 2002, about

both Bowles and Cleland and Mondale and Carnahan

[Thrill]

15. Its different this time

I live here and you were fooling yourself if you thought he was going to beat Liddy Dole. She beat him on pure name recognition. This time he has the name. And we feel real good about him winning here on the ground. Bowles signs 4-1 in the largest city in the state. And the second largest Raleigh is always going to vote heavy Dems. Bowles wins by 6 points

[ElsewheresDaughter]

7. Schummer's got it hands down!

[elperromagico]

13. Lincoln in AR too.

17 point lead, last I saw.

[Awsi Dooger]

8. Many very tight races

You can find polls that have us both ahead and behind in Oklahoma, Florida and South Dakota. Probably the same in Colorado, although Zogby had Salazar with a double digit margin a few days ago. Caution: he had a similar margin for Strickland over Allard late in 2002 and that was proven ridiculous.

Alaska has consistently shown a very small Knowles lead. Like most of these races, we are trying to win on GOP turf, similar to 2002. Louisiana should be fine as long as Vitter (R) doesn't manage 50% to avoid a runoff. I'm confident he won't get that.

The only race that may be slipping away according to some polls is South Carolina. DeMint had a 53-39 edge in one poll, after a previous poll had it 43-43.

[fujiyama]

14. Won't it be

especially difficult winning these senate seats in strong GOP states during a presidential election?

I would assume that undecideds would go in and end up voting for Bush and the R candidate just for party purposes...or that they will end up voting straight ticket R....Basically the senate candidates riding off Bush's coattails.

[Awsi Dooger]

22. That was always my belief

Until I took a look and listen to the GOP senate candidates in those red states. They suck. Thune, Martinez and Vitter are probably the best ones, along with the Georgia guy. Among Coors, Coburn, DeMint, Murkowski and Keyes you can't come up with one decent senator if you molded an a la carte combination of their best characteristics.

[chiburb]

10. Great site for Senate races here:

www.mydd.com/outlook/senate

[Roland99]

16. Kentucky is looking better!

Read this thread:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x1207528

[derbstyron]

17. Florida

Castor (D) seems to have slipped a point or two behind Martinez. But it's still w/in the margin of error. I still think it will come down to which candidate (Kerry or Bush) wins FL.

[nostalgicaboutmyfutr]

21. Salazar - Colorado will win!! EOM